Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41948814›Full record

ReviewStroke2026

Estimating Rupture Risk of Intracranial Aneurysms: What We Know, What We Do Not Know, and What We Need.

Samuel Hall, Frederick Ewbank, Benjamin Gaastra, Nazrul Islam, Jacqueline Birks, Diederik Bulters, Risk of Aneurysm Rupture (ROAR) Study Group

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Stroke, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Multi-Omics Genome-Wide to Explore the Formation and Development Targets for Intracranial Aneurysms.FASEB journal : official publication of the Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology · 2026
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Samuel HallDepartment of Neurosurgery, University Hospitals Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, United Kingdom (S.H., F.E., B.G., D.B.).ORCID 0000-0002-7335-6636
Frederick EwbankDepartment of Neurosurgery, University Hospitals Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, United Kingdom (S.H., F.E., B.G., D.B.).ORCID 0000-0003-3969-5199
Benjamin GaastraDepartment of Neurosurgery, University Hospitals Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, United Kingdom (S.H., F.E., B.G., D.B.).ORCID 0000-0002-7517-6882
Nazrul IslamPopulation Sciences, Faculty of Medicine (N.I.), University of Southampton, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-3982-4325
Jacqueline BirksCentre for Statistics in Medicine, Medical Sciences Division, University of Oxford, United Kingdom (J.B.).ORCID 0000-0002-8310-9911
Diederik BultersDepartment of Neurosurgery, University Hospitals Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, United Kingdom (S.H., F.E., B.G., D.B.).ORCID 0000-0001-9884-9050
Risk of Aneurysm Rupture (ROAR) Study Group

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Management of unruptured intracranial aneurysms requires balancing the risk of aneurysm rupture against the risk of procedural complications. Estimates of rupture risk stem from a few landmark natural history studies whose findings differ substantially, creating uncertainty for clinical decision-making. This review appraises these studies, highlighting areas of agreement and contradiction to inform future directions. Across studies, short-term rupture risk is low and increases with aneurysm size. The magnitude of risk varies (0.20%-1.85% at 1 year). These discrepancies likely arise from methodological challenges inherent to natural history research, including selection, crossover, incomplete follow-up, and regional variation. The effects of these factors are difficult to disentangle due to confounding. Rupture risk is highest in Finnish studies, followed by Japanese, then other international cohorts. This geographic pattern is reversed for the treatment rate. Rupture risk also shows a strong inverse relationship with treatment rate (

Indexed as

Aneurysm, RupturedIntracranial AneurysmHumansRisk AssessmentRisk Factorsbiascohort studiesintracranial aneurysmrisk assessmentrisk factorssubarachnoid hemorrhagesurvival analysis

Identifiers

PMID41948814
PMCPMC13196851

What OpenQuestion holds

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Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.