Evaluating the coupling coordination between industrial chains and innovation chains in the construction industry of Western China from a production-manufacturing perspective.

The construction sector is at a pivotal stage of transformation and upgrading, with technological innovation in the production and manufacturing phase playing a crucial role in improving the efficiency of the industrial chain and achieving balanced regional development. Significant regional disparities and structural deficiencies persist in the development of the construction industry in Western China, making it urgent to explore mechanisms for synergy between the industrial chain and the innovation chain. This paper develops a comprehensive indicator system encompassing both chains. Using the entropy weight method and a revised coupling coordination degree model, it integrates the Gini coefficient, kernel density estimation, Markov chain, and fsQCA methods to conduct a combined quantitative and qualitative analysis of the coupling coordination level, its dynamic evolution, and influencing factors within Western China’s construction industry dual-chain system. The study finds that, during 2018–2023, the coupling coordination degree of the dual chains in the construction industry increased steadily. However, regional disparities persisted: the overall coordination level in the Southwest was relatively higher, where core urban clusters played a radiative and driving role in surrounding areas, whereas the Northwest exhibited a lower overall level, resulting in significant spatial differences. The Gini coefficient and kernel density analyses indicate that inter-regional differences are the dominant source of spatial imbalance, though their contribution rate is declining. Markov chain forecasting reveals that the coupling state is highly self-sustaining, with some areas having the potential for significant advancement, while mid-tier regions require targeted policy support. Furthermore, fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) is employed to identify the synergistic pathways of four key factors—market, government, capital, and human resources—revealing multiple configurational patterns through which different regions can achieve high-level coupling coordination. Based on these results, the study recommends initiatives such as demonstration-driven leadership, differentiated assistance, inter-regional collaboration, and reinforcing weak or missing links in the chain, thereby providing both theoretical insights and practical guidance for the high-quality development of the construction industry in Western China.