Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41944030›Full record

ArticleGut and liver2026

Prognostic Role of Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure in Acute Variceal Bleeding: A Multicenter Retrospective Study in Australia.

Rajiv Kurup, Huu Hoang Hiep Dao, Pei-Yu Lin, Scott Read, Wai-See Ma, Jacob George, Golo Ahlenstiel

Abstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in Gut and liver, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Rajiv KurupBlacktown Clinical School and Research Centre, School of Medicine, Western Sydney University, Blacktown, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8207-115X
Huu Hoang Hiep DaoBlacktown Hospital, Western Sydney Local Health District, Blacktown, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9510-0079
Pei-Yu LinBlacktown Hospital, Western Sydney Local Health District, Blacktown, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0008-1954-9913
Scott ReadBlacktown Clinical School and Research Centre, School of Medicine, Western Sydney University, Blacktown, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6775-2061
Wai-See MaBlacktown Clinical School and Research Centre, School of Medicine, Western Sydney University, Blacktown, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0006-9207-5529
Jacob GeorgeStorr Liver Centre, The Westmead Institute for Medical Research, University of Sydney, Westmead, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-5476
Golo AhlenstielBlacktown Clinical School and Research Centre, School of Medicine, Western Sydney University, Blacktown, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0026-1457

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background/Aims: Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a life-threatening complication of cirrhosis that can precipitate acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), leading to poor outcomes. This multicenter retrospective study evaluated the impact of ACLF on the long-term outcomes of patients admitted with AVB and compared the performance of prognostic scores in predicting 1-year mortality. Methods: A total of 168 patients with cirrhosis admitted with AVB between January 2013 and December 2022 were included. ACLF was diagnosed using the Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Organ Failure (CLIF-C OF) score at admission and reassessed at 48 hours. Prognostic scores including the Child-Pugh, AIMS65, and CLIF-C model scores were evaluated. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of 6-week rebleeding, and Kaplan-Meier analysis was conducted to assess survival outcomes. Results: ACLF was present at admission in 21 patients (12.5%) and developed within 48 hours in two (1.2%). Although ACLF at admission was associated with a higher unadjusted 1-year mortality rate, it was not independently predictive after adjusting for hepatic reserve (Child-Pugh score) and age (hazard ratio, 0.97; 95% confidence interval, 0.32 to 2.94; p=0.951). The Child-Pugh score was the strongest predictor of the 1-year mortality rate (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve=0.718). The absence of hepatic encephalopathy independently predicted 6-week rebleeding (p=0.015). Endoscopy timing (<12 hours vs ≥12 hours) did not influence the 6-week mortality rate, rebleeding, or the 1-year survival rate in either the ACLF or non-ACLF group. Conclusions: Although ACLF identifies patients with AVB at high risk, it primarily reflects the severity of the underlying liver dysfunction rather than serving as an independent predictor. Management should prioritize stabilization and optimization prior to endoscopy and individualized follow-up to evaluate transplant candidacy.

Indexed as

Acute-On-Chronic Liver FailureEsophageal and Gastric VaricesGastrointestinal HemorrhageLiver CirrhosisAgedAustraliaFemaleHumansKaplan-Meier EstimateMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisRecurrenceRetrospective StudiesAcute-on-chronic liver failureEsophageal and gastric varicesHypertension, portalLiver cirrhosis

Identifiers

PMID41944030
PMCPMC13575907

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.