Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41943266›Full record

ArticleBrain and behavior2026

Global Inequality and Future Burden of Autism Spectrum Disorders: A Frontier and Projection Analysis Based on GBD 2021.

Jiayu Liu, Aoxi Xu, Zhifeng Zhao, Tao Li, Yuanyuan Dang, Meijing Liu, Yuxin Wang, Hulin Zhao, Yaohua Dai, Jianning Zhang

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Brain and behavior, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Jiayu LiuSenior Department of Neurosurgery, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6976-4568
Aoxi XuDepartment of General Surgery, Beijing Tsinghua Changgung Hospital, School of Clinical Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Zhifeng ZhaoDepartment of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, the First Medical Center, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.
Tao LiCapital Center for Children's Health, Capital Medical University, Capital Institute of Pediatrics, Beijing, China.
Yuanyuan DangSenior Department of Neurosurgery, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.
Meijing LiuSenior Department of Neurosurgery, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.
Yuxin WangSenior Department of Neurosurgery, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0009-0449-083X
Hulin ZhaoSenior Department of Neurosurgery, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.
Yaohua DaiDepartment of Integrated Early Childhood Development, Capital Institute of Pediatrics, Beijing, China.
Jianning ZhangSenior Department of Neurosurgery, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAutism spectrum disorder (ASD) comprises a group of persistent neurodevelopmental conditions characterized by impairments in communication, restricted behavioral patterns, and social dysfunction. In severe cases, ASD can lead to self-injury or suicide, imposing a significant burden on individuals, families, and society. This study aimed to comprehensively assess the temporal, demographic, and regional patterns of ASD burden from 1990 to 2021; project future trends; and provide insights into potential causes and public health strategies.

methodsData on the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of ASD were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021. Temporal trends were evaluated using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling. We further examined burden distribution by age, sex, region, and sociodemographic index (SDI).

resultsIn 2021, an estimated 61.82 million individuals were living with ASD globally, with 1.16 million new cases and 11.54 million DALYs. The global age-standardized point prevalence, incidence, and DALY rates were 788.3, 18.8, and 147.6 per 100,000 population, respectively-representing increases of 2.0%, 5.2%, and 2.1% since 1990. Regionally, the highest age-standardized prevalence rate was observed in the High-income Asia Pacific region, while tropical Latin America had the lowest. At the national level, Japan recorded the highest age-standardized prevalence, whereas the Republic of Mauritius had the lowest.

conclusionASD poses a rising global public health challenge, with persistent regional disparities and underrecognized burden in adults and females. Current gaps in epidemiological surveillance, etiological understanding, and treatment capacity highlight the urgent need for greater governmental investment in ASD-related research, early detection strategies, and inclusive care systems.

Indexed as

Autism Spectrum DisorderGlobal Burden of DiseaseAdolescentBayes TheoremChildChild, PreschoolCost of IllnessDisability-Adjusted Life YearsFemaleHumansIncidenceMalePrevalenceautism spectrum disorderepidemiologyforecastingglobal burden of diseasetemporal trend

Identifiers

PMID41943266
PMCPMC13053662

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.