ArticleInternational neurourology journal2026
Predicting Time to Recovery From Acute Urinary Retention in Hospitalized Patients: Development and Validation of a Clinical Prediction Model.
Article in International neurourology journal, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
purposeAcute urinary retention (AUR) is a common complication in hospitalized patients with unpredictable recovery times. We aimed to develop and validate a clinical prediction model for recovery from AUR within 14 days.
methodsA prospective cohort study was conducted from March 2024 to July 2025 at a tertiary care center. Adult patients (n=126) with AUR were enrolled upon urological consultation. Males with prostate volume >30 g were excluded. Patients underwent standardized voiding trials every 3-4 days, with success defined as postvoid residual <100 mL. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify predictors of recovery within 14 days.
resultsThe cohort comprised 84 males (66.7%) and 42 females (33.3%), mean age 71.9±14.2 years. Overall, 81.7% achieved successful voiding within 14 days. The prediction model demonstrated excellent discrimination (area under the curve [AUC], 0.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76-0.90) with 4 independent predictors: age <70 years (OR, 4.11; 95% CI, 2.18-7.76; P=0.008), male sex (OR, 9.09; 95% CI, 4.35-19.01; P<0.001), postoperative etiology (OR, 4.38; 95% CI, 2.26-8.48; P=0.004), and retention volume ≤450 mL (OR, 4.55; 95% CI, 2.17-9.52; P=0.017). Bootstrap validation confirmed model stability (optimism-corrected AUC=0.81).
conclusionOur clinical prediction model reliably identifies patients at risk for prolonged urinary retention using 4 simple bedside parameters. Implementation may optimize catheter management strategies and improve patient outcomes through risk-stratified care pathways.
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