ArticleScientific reports2026
Observed and projected climate extremes in northwest highlands of Ethiopia and their implications in potato-based farming systems.
Article in Scientific reports, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Potato, a vital staple crop widely grown in the Ethiopian highlands, is sensitive to climate extremes. In this study, extreme rainfall and temperature trends were analyzed in northwest Ethiopia lower highland (Lower Dega) and upper highland (Upper Dega) agroecosystems (AESs) using Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) dataset for 1989–2018 and MIROC6 projections for near-term (2019–2048) and mid-century (2049–2078) period under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and high (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios to inform adaptation strategies. The extreme indices were computed using RClimDex2.0, while the significance of observed trends was evaluated using the Modified Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator in R. Relatively higher extreme rainfall events were observed in Upper Dega. Observed annual total wet day rainfall (PRCPTOT) increased by 168 and 67 mm per decade, while the highest maximum monthly consecutive five-day precipitation (RX5day) increased by 13.8 and 2.5 mm per decade in Lower Dega and Upper Dega AESs, respectively. The projected PRCPTOT, extremely wet days (R99P), and number of very heavy precipitation days (R20) showed an increase in the range of 13.11–16.29%, 20.25–35.17%, and 44.83–57.95% across AESs, with the highest values anticipated in Upper Dega under SSP5-8.5 in mid-century. The highest rise in temperature extremes was projected for the warmest days (TXx) and warmest nights (TNx) with values of 1.74 and 1.77 °C and 1.65 and 1.95 °C in Lower Dega and Upper Dega AESs, respectively, under SSP5-8.5 in mid-century. Future agronomic practices and variety improvement activities should consider these results for climate-resilient potato production in the northwest Ethiopia potato-growing areas.
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