ArticleScientific reports2026
Retrospective cohort study of body fat percentage and incident impaired fasting glucose among Chinese adults.
Article in Scientific reports, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Diabetes poses a growing global public health burden, with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) representing a key prediabetic stage. Body fat percentage (BF%) is a commonly used indicator of adiposity and has been shown to be a better predictor of metabolic risk than BMI. However, evidence regarding the association between BF% and the risk of IFG in Chinese populations remains limited. This study aims to explore the relationship between BF% and the risk of incident IFG in Chinese adults. The study analyzed data from 184,308 Chinese adults with normal fasting glucose, derived from a large retrospective cohort database. The exposure was BF%, estimated using a previously validated prediction formula incorporating BMI, age, and gender. The primary outcome was new-onset IFG, defined as a fasting plasma glucose level between 5.6 and 6.9 mmol/L. The relationship between BF% and IFG risk was examined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models. Restricted cubic splines (RCS) were used to explore nonlinearity, and subgroup analyses were conducted to assess consistency. During a median follow-up of 3.0 years, 11.28% of participants developed IFG. Higher BF% levels were independently associated with increased IFG risk: per 1-unit increase, the HR was 1.03 (95% CI: 1.02-1.03) in the fully adjusted model. A dose-response relationship was observed across BF% quartiles. RCS analysis revealed a nonlinear association with an inflection point at BF% = 30.205; below this point, the HR per 1-unit increase was 1.013 (95% CI: 1.009-1.017), and above it, the HR was 1.046 (95% CI: 1.038-1.054). Elevated BF% was consistently and positively associated with an increased risk of IFG across all predefined subgroups, with all corresponding HRs being greater than 1, indicating a robust and consistent association. Elevated BF% is an independent risk factor for IFG in Chinese adults, exhibiting a dose-response and nonlinear relationship. BF%, which can be easily estimated from routine parameters, may serve as a practical biomarker for early identification of high-risk individuals, informing targeted diabetes prevention strategies.
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