ArticleNature communications2026
Global hotspots of particulate organic carbon losses under climate change.
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113 authors.
Siyi SunState Key Laboratory of Loess Science, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an, China.
M Francesca CotrufoDepartment of Soil and Crop Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6191-8953
R A Viscarra RosselSoil & Landscape Science, School of Molecular & Life Sciences, Faculty of Science & Engineering, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1540-4748
Carsten W MuellerInstitute of Ecology, Chair of Soil Science, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Morimaru KidaSoil Science Laboratory, Graduate School of Agricultural Science, Kobe University, Kobe, Japan.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9908-2012
Ailsa G HardieDepartment of Soil Science, University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, South Africa.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5514-6547
Alec MackayAgResearch, Grasslands Research Centre, Palmerston North, New Zealand.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9006-3918
Alexander H KrichelsUSDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, Albuquerque, NM, USA.
Wulf AmelungInstitute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, Soil Science and Soil Ecology, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
Amit KumarDepartment of Biology, College of Science, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4590-1825
Azamat SuleymanovLaboratory of Soil Science, Ufa Institute of Biology, Ufa Federal Research Centre, Russian Academy of Sciences, Ufa, Russia.
Baoku ShiInstitute of Grassland Science, Key Laboratory of Vegetation Ecology of the Ministry of Education, Jilin Songnen Grassland Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3954-9415
Bernard Jackson CosbyUK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales, Bangor, Gwynedd, UK.
César PlazaInstituto de Ciencias Agrarias (ICA), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Madrid, Spain.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8616-7001
César TerrerDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5479-3486
Chang LiangPollutant Inventories and Reporting Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Gatineau, QC, Canada.
Chang LiaoKey Laboratory of Soil Ecology and Health in Universities of Yunnan Province, School of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming, China.
Christopher JustSoil Science, TUM School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany.
Ding GuoState Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-Ecosystems, Engineering Research Center of Grassland Industry, Ministry of Education, College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China.
Emanuele LugatoEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8947-352X
Enqing HouKey Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystems, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4864-2347
Fan DingCollege of Land and Environment, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7938-1015
Fazhu ZhaoCollege of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi'an, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4758-3277
Feng TaoDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6105-860X
Fernando T MaestreEnvironmental Sciences and Engineering, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7434-4856
Franco BilottoDepartment of Global Development, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA.
Fuzhong WuKey Laboratory for Humid Subtropical Eco-Geographical Processes of the Ministry of Education, School of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0411-5908
Gisela V GarcíaFacultad de Ciencias Agrarias, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Unidad Integrada Balcarce, Buenos Aires, Argentina.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0628-7917
Gongwen LuoCollege of Resources, Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Farmland Pollution Control and Agricultural Resources Use, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0564-7885
Guangxuan HanKey Laboratory of Coastal Environment Processes, Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2651-8599
Guillermo A StuddertFacultad de Ciencias Agrarias, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Unidad Integrada Balcarce, Buenos Aires, Argentina.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8611-4441
Guillermo Hernandez-RamirezDepartment of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8225-5813
Guoxiang NiuKey Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystems, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China.
Gervasio PiñeiroLART-IFEVA, Facultad de Agronomía, Universidad de Buenos Aires, CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Gustavo SaizDepartamento de Química Ambiental, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Centro de Energía, Concepción, Chile.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7794-4403
Haikuo ZhangState Key Laboratory for Development and Utilization of Forest Food Resources, College of Carbon Neutrality, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, China.
Hamada AbdelrahmanSoil Science Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6069-7239
Haodi XuSoil and Crop sciences Section, School of Integrative Plant Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3839-7202
Inma LebronUK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales, Bangor, Gwynedd, UK.
Irina KurganovaInstitute of Physicochemical and Biological Problems in Soil Science of Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino, Russia.
Jennifer BleshSchool for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Jeppe Å KristensenEnvironmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Ji LiuState Key Laboratory of Loess Science, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2496-9521
Jiacong ZhouState Key Laboratory of Loess Science, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an, China.
Jianping WuKey Laboratory of Soil Ecology and Health in Universities of Yunnan Province, School of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5784-834X
Jitendra AhirwalCentre of Environmental Studies, University of Allahabad, Prayagraj, India.
Junji CaoInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1000-7241
Jørgen E OlesenDepartment of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Tjele, Denmark.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6639-1273
Karin KauerChair of Soil Science, Institute of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Estonian University of Life Sciences, Tartu, Estonia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9318-8094
Katerina GeorgiouPhysical and Life Sciences Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2819-3292
Kees Jan van GroenigenDepartment of Geography, Faculty of Environment, Society and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9165-3925
Kristof Van OostEarth and Life Institution, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4938-9438
Kwame Agyei FrimpongDepartment of Soil Science, School of Agriculture, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana.
Lei DengState Key Laboratory for Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5898-5100
Liane G BenningGFZ, Helmholtz Center for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9972-5578
Liang GuoState Key Laboratory for Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, China.
Lizzie MujuruDepartment of Environmental Science, Bindura University of Science Education, Bindura, Zimbabwe.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9398-7486
Manuel Delgado-BaquerizoLaboratorio de Biodiversidad y Funcionamiento Ecosistémico, Instituto de Recursos Naturales y Agrobiología de Sevilla (IRNAS), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Sevilla, Spain.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6499-576X
Maoz DorDepartment of Plant, Soil and Microbial Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA.
Mehdi RahmatiDepartment of Soil Science and Engineering, University of Maragheh, Maragheh, Iran.
Min LuoCollege of Environment and Safety Engineering, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3284-629X
Olga KalininaDepartment of Soil Science, CvO University of Oldenburg, Oldenburg, Germany.
Olli HyvärinenSection for Aquatic Biology and Toxicology, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
Pablo García-PalaciosInstituto de Ciencias Agrarias (ICA), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Madrid, Spain.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6367-4761
Paige HansenDepartment of Soil and Crop Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
Patra RounakDepartment of Biosystems Engineering and Soil Science, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5822-466X
Pengpeng DuanKey Laboratory of Agro-ecological Processes in Subtropical Region, Institute of Subtropical Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changsha, China.
Pengzhi ZhaoEarth and Life Institution, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.
Peter M HomyakDepartment of Environmental Sciences, University of California, Riverside, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0671-8358
Rajan GhimireAgricultural Science Center, New Mexico State University, Clovis, NM, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6962-6066
Renaldas ŽydelisInstitute of Agriculture, Lithuanian Research Centre for Agriculture and Forestry, Akademija, Kedainiai District, Lithuania.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2746-3713
Roland BolInstitute of Bio- and Geosciences, Agrosphere (IBG-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3015-7706
Ronaldo VibartAgResearch, Grasslands Research Centre, Palmerston North, New Zealand.
Ruiying ChangCAS Key Laboratory of Mountain Surface Processes and Ecological Regulation, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, China.
Ruyi LuoCAS Key Laboratory of Mountain Ecological Restoration and Bioresource Utilization & Ecological Restoration Biodiversity Conservation Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1032-1858
Sebastián VillarinoConsejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), BuenosAires, Argentina.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1850-447X
Shuai XueCollege of Bioscience & Biotechnology, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha, China.
Shuli NiuKey Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2394-2864
Shuotong ChenCollege of Environmental Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, China.
Tengfei YuKey Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China.
Steven J HallDepartment of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA.
Thomas KättererDepartment of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1751-007X
Tida GeKey State Key Laboratory for Quality and Safety of Agro-Products, International Science and Technology Cooperation Base for the Regulation of Soil Biological Functions and One Health of Zhejiang Province, Ningbo University, Ningbo, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0422-6122
Vusumuzi Erick MbanjwaSoil Science Discipline, School of Agricultural, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1460-6578
Vyacheslav M SemenovInstitute of Physicochemical and Biological Problems in Soil Science of Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino, Russia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2539-6107
Weixing LiuState Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land in Northern China, the Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China.
Weiyu ShiChongqing Engineering Research Center for Remote Sensing Big Data Application and Chongqing Key Laboratory of Karst Environment, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China.
Wei ZhangKey Laboratory of Agro-ecological Processes in Subtropical Region, Institute of Subtropical Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changsha, China.
Wolfgang WanekDivision of Terrestrial Ecosystem Research, Department of Microbiology and Ecosystem Research, Center for Microbiology and Environmental Systems Science, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2178-8258
Wolfram BussResearch School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia.
Xiangrong ChengEast China Coastal Forest Ecosystem Research Station, Institute of Subtropical Forestry, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Hangzhou, China.
Xiankai LuKey Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystems, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7720-6048
Xiaojun ShiCollege of Resources and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5740-4098
Xiaoli ChengKey Laboratory of Soil Ecology and Health in Universities of Yunnan Province, School of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0346-675X
Xiaorong WeiState Key Laboratory for Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, China.
Xiaotong LiuInstitute of Resources and Environment, International Centre for Bamboo and Rattan, Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration/Beijing for Bamboo & Rattan Science and Technology, Beijing, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9393-933X
Xuhui ZhouNortheast Asia Ecosystem Carbon Sink Research Center (NACC), Center for Ecological Research, Key Laboratory of Sustainable Forest Ecosystem Management-Ministry of Education, School of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2038-9901
Yahya KoochFaculty of Natural Resources & Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Mazandaran, Iran.
Yangquanwei ZhongSchool of Ecology and Environment, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an, China.
Yanjiang CaiState Key Laboratory for Development and Utilization of Forest Food Resources, College of Carbon Neutrality, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5376-7884
Yan YangKey Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Yiqi LuoSoil and Crop sciences Section, School of Integrative Plant Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4556-0218
Yixuan ZhangState Key Laboratory of Loess Science, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an, China.
Yunbin QinGuangxi Key Laboratory of Landscape Resources Conservation and Sustainable Utilization in Lijiang River Basin, Guangxi Normal University, Guilin, Guangxi, China.
Yunting FangCAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Management, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7531-546X
Yuting LiangState Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5443-4486
Yuyi LiState Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land in Northern China, the Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2433-4799
Zengming ChenState Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5017-4939
Zhanfeng LiuKey Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystems, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6602-6196
Zhaoliang SongInstitute of Surface-Earth System Science, School of Earth System Science, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2219-5852
Zhongkui LuoInstitute of Agriculture Remote Sensing and Information Technology, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6744-6491
Zhisheng AnState Key Laboratory of Loess Science, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9538-9826
Ji ChenState Key Laboratory of Loess Science, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an, China. chenji@ieecas.cn.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7026-6312
Funding
National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China) 32471685National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China) 42361144886
Abstract
Soil organic carbon (SOC) comprises particulate (POC) and mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC), which differ in formation, stabilization, and loss mechanisms. While the current global distribution of POC and MAOC is characterized, their vulnerability under future climate scenarios remains unclear. Using 3284 topsoil (0-30 cm) observations from six continents, we identify high-latitude soils as global hotspots of SOC vulnerability under shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). Under a high-emission scenario (SSP585), high-latitude soils are projected to lose substantial POC by 2100, accounting for about 81 ± 10% of total SOC losses. These declines are driven by the high proportion of SOC stored as POC (f
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