ArticleNeotropical entomology2026
Global Risk Assessment of the Invasive Insect Thaumatotibia leucotreta to Citrus Based on its Potential Distribution.
Article in Neotropical entomology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
The false-codling moth (FCM), Thaumatotibia leucotreta Meyrick (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is a globally recognized quarantine pest responsible for substantial economic losses in the southern African citrus industry. Driven by international trade and climate change, FCM poses a potential threat to regions beyond its native range. In this study, we employed the MaxEnt model to predict suitable habitats for FCM under near-current and future climate scenarios based on 141 global occurrence data and 19 bioclimatic variables. The model performed excellently with an AUC of 0.965. The key bioclimatic variables affecting FCM distribution were isothermality (bio3), maximum temperature of the warmest month (bio5), mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9), and annual precipitation (bio12). Under near-current climate conditions, the total suitable habitat was estimated at approximately 2575.03 × 10
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