Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41912728›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2026

Changes in body mass index and waist circumference as predictors of incident prediabetes: the Aichi Workers' Cohort Study.

Hanson Gabriel Nuamah, Zean Song, Midori Takada, Nanami Nishio, Baruck Tegegn Endale, Shalini Enon Perera Paththamesthrige, Young Jae Hong, Mohammad Hassan Hamrah, Shuang Wang, Weiming Luo and 4 more

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Article in Scientific reports, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

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2 · The registry

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3 · Its place in the literature

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Hanson Gabriel NuamahDepartment of Public Health and Health Systems, Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan.
Zean SongDepartment of Public Health and Health Systems, Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan.
Midori TakadaDepartment of Public Health and Health Systems, Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan.
Nanami NishioDepartment of Public Health and Health Systems, Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan.
Baruck Tegegn EndaleDepartment of Public Health and Health Systems, Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan.
Shalini Enon Perera PaththamesthrigeDepartment of Public Health and Health Systems, Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan.
Young Jae HongDepartment of Public Health and Health Systems, Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan.
Mohammad Hassan HamrahDepartment of Public Health and Health Systems, Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan.
Shuang WangDepartment of Public Health and Health Systems, Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan.
Weiming LuoDepartment of Public Health and Health Systems, Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan.
Masaaki MatsunagaDepartment of Public Health, Fujita Health University School of Medicine, Toyoake, Japan.
Atsuhiko OtaDepartment of Public Health, Fujita Health University School of Medicine, Toyoake, Japan.
Koji TamakoshiDepartment of Nursing, Nagoya University School of Health Sciences, Nagoya, Japan.
Hiroshi YatsuyaDepartment of Public Health and Health Systems, Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan. h828@med.nagoya-u.ac.jp.

Funding

Health and Labor Sciences Research Grants from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare H26-Junkankitou [Seisaku]-Ippan-001, H29-Junkankitou [Seishuu]-Ippan-003, 20FA1002, 23FA1006, and 23JA1006Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 22390133, 26293153, 18H03057, 22H03349, 23K24607
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Increases in body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) are established predictors of diabetes, yet the extent to which longitudinal changes in these measures signal emerging prediabetes is less clear. This study evaluated whether changes in BMI and WC predict incident prediabetes in a working‑age population. A total of 2,754 Japanese civil servants from the Aichi Workers’ Cohort Study were followed from 2013 to 2022. Individual slopes for changes in BMI and WC were derived from annual measurements collected between 2008 and 2013. Cox proportional hazards models estimated associations between slopes of anthropometric change and prediabetes onset, adjusting for demographic, lifestyle, and clinical factors, including initial (2008) BMI and WC. Over a median 7.0‑year follow‑up, 846 participants developed prediabetes (incidence rate: 50.1 per 1,000 person‑years). Each one‑standard‑deviation increase in BMI‑change slope was associated with a higher risk of prediabetes (HR 1.12; 95% CI, 1.05–1.20), with a comparable association observed for WC‑change slope (HR 1.12; 95% CI, 1.05–1.20). Progressive increases in BMI and WC were independently associated with higher prediabetes risk. Routine monitoring of longitudinal anthropometric change may support early identification of metabolic risk and guide low‑cost prevention strategies.

Indexed as

Body Mass IndexPrediabetic StateWaist CircumferenceAdultCohort StudiesFemaleHumansIncidenceJapanMaleMiddle AgedProportional Hazards ModelsRisk FactorsAnthropometric changeBody mass indexInsulin resistanceJapanese workersPrediabetesWaist circumference

Identifiers

PMID41912728
PMCPMC13036048

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