Socioeconomic impacts of climate-related migration: The case of Bangladesh.

Climate change poses a substantial threat to the development trajectories of emerging economies. Bangladesh is an illustrative case study, as its economy has recently been directly impacted by increasingly frequent extreme weather events, such as floods, cyclones, and droughts. Ranked as the seventh most climate-vulnerable nation globally, Bangladesh faces significant displacement risks, potentially affecting one in seven citizens, particularly low-skilled workers in rural and coastal regions. These disruptions jeopardize key sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, and livestock, undermining future economic performance. This article proposes the application of Miyazawa's extended input-output model to quantify the direct, indirect, and induced value-added and employment impacts under migration scenarios induced by slow-onset climate events. Simulations incorporating rural-urban household heterogeneity reveal that rural migration could reduce national value-added by 4.37%, with sectoral variation. Employment losses are estimated at 4.59%, with agriculture, wholesale trade, manufacturing, and construction experiencing declines between 4% and 5%, highlighting sectoral vulnerability and interdependence.