Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41903004›Full record

ArticleNeurology and therapy2026

Prognostic Value of the Day 5-7 Neurological Examination in Anterior Circulation Ischemic Stroke: A Post Hoc Analysis of the MARVEL Trial.

Xuanyu Chen, Lingyu Zhang, Gaoming Li, Xu Xu, Jinfu Ma, Haoxuan Zhu, Xiaolei Shi, Shihai Yang, Zhixi Wang, Mingyang Chen and 18 more

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Article in Neurology and therapy, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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5 · Who and what money

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28 authors.

Xuanyu Chen *Department of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), No. 183 Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, China.
Lingyu Zhang *Department of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), No. 183 Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, China.
Gaoming Li *Department of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), No. 183 Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, China.
Xu XuDepartment of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), No. 183 Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, China.
Jinfu MaDepartment of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), No. 183 Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, China.
Haoxuan ZhuDepartment of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), No. 183 Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, China.
Xiaolei ShiDepartment of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), No. 183 Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, China.
Shihai YangDepartment of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), No. 183 Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, China.
Zhixi WangDepartment of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), No. 183 Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, China.
Mingyang ChenDepartment of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), No. 183 Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, China.
Yihui YangDepartment of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), No. 183 Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, China.
Yuhan FanDepartment of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), No. 183 Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, China.
Binghan WangDepartment of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), No. 183 Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, China.
Guojian LiuDepartment of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), No. 183 Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, China.
Linyu LiDepartment of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), No. 183 Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, China.
Zhenxuan TianDepartment of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, No. 74 Linjiang Road, Yuzhong District, Chongqing, 400010, China.
Boyu ChenDepartment of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, No. 74 Linjiang Road, Yuzhong District, Chongqing, 400010, China.
Chawen DingDepartment of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, No. 74 Linjiang Road, Yuzhong District, Chongqing, 400010, China.
Dahong YangDepartment of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), No. 183 Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, China.
Wenzhe SunDepartment of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), No. 183 Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, China.
Lilan WangDepartment of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), No. 183 Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, China.
Shitao FanDepartment of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), No. 183 Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, China.
Chengsong YueDepartment of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), No. 183 Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, China.
Nizhen YuDepartment of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), No. 183 Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, China.
Jie YangDepartment of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), No. 183 Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, China.
Zhuang LiDepartment of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), No. 183 Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, China.
Wenjie ZiDepartment of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), No. 183 Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, China. ziwenjie@tmmu.edu.cn.
Kunxin LinDepartment of Neurology, Xinqiao Hospital and The Second Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), No. 183 Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, China. linkunxin0917@163.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8826-0816

Funding

Key Laboratory of Geriatric Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease Research, Ministry of Education of China KFKT202506National Natural Science Foundation of China 82271349National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars of China 82425021Noncommunicable Chronic Diseases-National Science and Technology Major Project 2024ZD0527905
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionEarly prediction of long-term recovery after endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) is essential for guiding care but is often confounded by the instability of acute neurological assessments. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) measured at day 5-7 or earlier if discharged (D5-7/discharge) compared with baseline NIHSS and change-based metrics for predicting 90-day functional outcomes.

methodsWe performed a post hoc analysis of the MARVEL trial, a multicenter randomized clinical trial involving adult patients with acute ischemic stroke due to anterior circulation large-vessel occlusion. The prognostic performance of baseline NIHSS, D5-7/discharge NIHSS, absolute change (ΔNIHSS), and percentage change was evaluated. The primary outcome was favorable outcome, defined as a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score of 0-2 at 90 days. Discriminative performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

resultsAmong 1650 included patients, the D5-7/discharge NIHSS showed the highest discriminative ability among the evaluated NIHSS-based measures for predicting favorable outcome (AUC 0.897; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.881-0.912), exceeding percentage change (AUC 0.891), ΔNIHSS (AUC 0.866), and baseline NIHSS (AUC 0.650) (all p < 0.001). A pragmatic, restricted cubic spline-informed threshold of D5-7/discharge NIHSS ≤ 5 yielded a sensitivity of 64.7% and specificity of 93.3% for 90-day favorable outcome. Adding D5-7/discharge to a model containing traditional covariates significantly improved predictive accuracy (AUC increased from 0.782 to 0.910; NRI 0.437; p < 0.001). Percentage change in NIHSS offered better discrimination than absolute change.

conclusionThe NIHSS assessed at D5-7/discharge showed higher discriminative performance for 90-day functional outcomes than baseline and change-based measures in this post hoc analysis. A threshold of ≤ 5 provided high specificity and may aid bedside counseling and discharge planning, although external validation is warranted.

trial registrationChiCTR.org.cn Identifier, ChiCTR2100051729.

Indexed as

Acute ischemic strokeEndovascular thrombectomyFunctional outcomeNIHSSPrognosis

Identifiers

PMID41903004
PMCPMC13172080

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