ArticlebioRxiv : the preprint server for biology2026
Dispersal, adaptation and persistence of H5N1 in the sub-Antarctic and Antarctica.
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Article in bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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87 authors.
Augustin ClessinCentre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), CNRS, Université de Montpellier, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France.ORCID 0000-0003-1430-266X
Marius BrusselmansDepartment of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.ORCID 0009-0000-2134-1515
Samuel L HongDepartment of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.ORCID 0000-0001-6354-4943
Jérémy TornosCentre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), CNRS, Université de Montpellier, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France.
Mathilde LejeuneCentre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), CNRS, Université de Montpellier, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France.
Yucai ShaoDepartment of Biostatistics, Jonathan and Karin Fielding School of Public Health, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.ORCID 0009-0005-8703-7651
François-Xavier BriandANSES, Ploufragan-Plouzané-Niort Laboratory, National Reference Laboratory for Avian Influenza, Unité de virologie, Immunologie, Parasitologie, Aviaires et Cunicoles, Ploufragan, France.ORCID 0000-0002-8094-9368
Celia AbolnikDepartment of Production Animal Studies, Faculty of Veterinary Science, University of Pretoria, Onderstepoort, 0110, South Africa.ORCID 0000-0003-3044-465X
Benjamin KazaDepartment of Public & Ecosystem Health, Cornell University, Ithaca, USA.
Marc A SuchardDepartment of Biostatistics, Jonathan and Karin Fielding School of Public Health, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-9818-479X
Begoña AguadoCentro de Biología Molecular Severo Ochoa (Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas - Universidad Autónoma de Madrid), Madrid, Spain.
Antonio AlcamíCentro de Biología Molecular Severo Ochoa (Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas - Universidad Autónoma de Madrid), Madrid, Spain.ORCID 0000-0002-3333-6016
Christophe BarbraudCentre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR 7372 CNRS-La Rochelle Université, Villiers en Bois, France.
Martin BeerInstitute of Diagnostic Virology, Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Federal Research Institute for Animal Health, DE-17493 Greifswald-Insel Riems, Germany.
Ashley BennisonBritish Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
Francesco BonadonnaCentre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), CNRS, Université de Montpellier, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France.
Timothée BonnetCentre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR 7372 CNRS-La Rochelle Université, Villiers en Bois, France.
Charles-André BostCentre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR 7372 CNRS-La Rochelle Université, Villiers en Bois, France.
Sara BoucheronCentre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), CNRS, Université de Montpellier, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France.
Tristan BraletCentre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), CNRS, Université de Montpellier, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France.
Paulo CatryMarine and Environmental Sciences Centre / ARNET - Aquatic Research Network, ISPA - Instituto Universitário, 1149-041 Lisbon, Portugal.
Jaimie CleelandBritish Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-2196-3968
Maelle ConnanDepartment of Zoology, Marine Apex Predator Research Unit (MAPRU), Institute for Coastal and Marine Research, Nelson Mandela University, Gqeberha, South Africa.
Holly A CoombesInfluenza and Avian Virology Workgroup, Department of Virology, Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA-Weybridge), Woodham Lane, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-4941-6328
Karine DelordCentre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR 7372 CNRS-La Rochelle Université, Villiers en Bois, France.ORCID 0000-0001-6720-951X
Camille de PasqualeCentre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), CNRS, Université de Montpellier, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France.
Meagan L DewarFuture Regions Research Centre, Federation University, Melbourne, Australia.ORCID 0000-0003-0581-2422
Xiaomin DongWHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, Royal Melbourne Hospital, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia.
Julia EmeritDepartment of Public & Ecosystem Health, Cornell University, Ithaca, USA.
Romain FischerCentre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), CNRS, Université de Montpellier, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France.
Nicholas Fountain-JonesTasmanian School of Medicine, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-9248-8493
Filippo GalimbertiElephant Seal Research Group, Sea Lion Island, FIQQ1ZZ Falkland Islands.
Jacob González-SolísDepartament de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals (BEECA), Universitat de Barcelona (UB), Av. Diagonal 643, 08028 Barcelona, Spain.
Christophe GuinetCentre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR 7372 CNRS-La Rochelle Université, Villiers en Bois, France.ORCID 0000-0003-2481-6947
Carrie GunnBritish Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
Anne GüntherInstitute of Diagnostic Virology, Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Federal Research Institute for Animal Health, DE-17493 Greifswald-Insel Riems, Germany.
Matteo IervolinoDepartment of Viroscience, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID 0009-0000-8476-4638
Joe JamesInfluenza and Avian Virology Workgroup, Department of Virology, Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA-Weybridge), Woodham Lane, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-9673-3684
Xiang JiDepartment of Statistics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United States.
Ian JonsenIMOS Animal Tagging, Sydney Institute of Marine Science, Mosman, New South Wales, Australia.
Christopher W JonesRoyal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), Centre for Conservation Science, Pembroke Street, Cambridge, CB2 3QZ, UK.
Amanda KuepferFalklands Conservation, Stanley, Falkland Islands.ORCID 0000-0002-3559-8802
Thijs KuikenDepartment of Viroscience, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0001-5501-9049
Céline LebohecCentre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), CNRS, Université de Montpellier, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France.
Simeon LisovskiAlfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz, Centre for Polar and Marine Research, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-6399-0035
Lucia Llorente ZubiriEnvironmental Department, Terres Australes et Antarctiques Françaises (TAAF), Saint-Pierre, La Réunion, France.
Joshua G Lynton-JenkinsInfluenza and Avian Virology Workgroup, Department of Virology, Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA-Weybridge), Woodham Lane, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-1657-7843
Paula Martinez-GarcíaCentro de Biología Molecular Severo Ochoa (Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas - Universidad Autónoma de Madrid), Madrid, Spain.
Michelle McCulleyAnimal Health Laboratory, Diagnostics, Readiness and Surveillance, Biosecurity NewZealand, Ministry for Primary Industries, Upper Hutt, New Zealand.
Clive R McMahonInstitute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-5241-8917
Benjamin C MollettInfluenza and Avian Virology Workgroup, Department of Virology, Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA-Weybridge), Woodham Lane, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-1608-0191
Ana I Moraga-QuintanillaCentro de Biología Molecular Severo Ochoa (Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas - Universidad Autónoma de Madrid), Madrid, Spain.
Rhiannon NicholBritish Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
Aude NoiretUniversité de Strasbourg, CNRS, IPHC UMR 7178, F-67000 Strasbourg, France.
Maria OgrzewalskaLaboratory of Respiratory, Exanthematic, Enteric Viruses and Viral Emergencies, Oswaldo Cruz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-9207-743X
Kate OwenBritish Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
Catalina Pardo-RoaDepartment of Child and Adolescent Health, School of Nursing, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
Samuel PeroteauCentre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR 7372 CNRS-La Rochelle Université, Villiers en Bois, France.
Richard A PhillipsBritish Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
Elie PoulinMillennium Institute Biodiversity of Antarctic and Subantarctic Ecosystems (BASE), Santiago, Chile.
Andrew RambautInstitute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK.
Scott M ReidInfluenza and Avian Virology Workgroup, Department of Virology, Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA-Weybridge), Woodham Lane, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, UK.
Eva RiehleBritish Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
Michelle RisiRoyal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), Centre for Conservation Science, Pembroke Street, Cambridge, CB2 3QZ, UK.
Odin RumianowskiCentre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), CNRS, Université de Montpellier, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France.
Peter G RyanFitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7700, South Africa.
Simona SanvitoElephant Seal Research Group, Sea Lion Island, FIQQ1ZZ Falkland Islands.
Andrew StanworthFalklands Conservation, Stanley, Falkland Islands.
Antje SteinfurthRoyal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), Centre for Conservation Science, Pembroke Street, Cambridge, CB2 3QZ, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-9512-5425
Jonathon StevensonBritish Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
Antoine StierUniversité de Strasbourg, CNRS, IPHC UMR 7178, F-67000 Strasbourg, France.ORCID 0000-0002-5445-5524
Marcela M UhartKaren C. Drayer Wildlife Health Center, Weill School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, 95616, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3525-541X
Ralph E T VanstreelsKaren C. Drayer Wildlife Health Center, Weill School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, 95616, USA.
Angela Vázquez-CalvoCentro de Biología Molecular Severo Ochoa (Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas - Universidad Autónoma de Madrid), Madrid, Spain.
Juliana A ViannaMillennium Institute Biodiversity of Antarctic and Subantarctic Ecosystems (BASE), Santiago, Chile.
Katie WellsBritish Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
Jeff WhiteDepartment of Public & Ecosystem Health, Cornell University, Ithaca, USA.
Paul WhitelawBritish Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
Michelle WilleWHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, Royal Melbourne Hospital, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-5629-0196
Jane YoungerInstitute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-5974-7350
Laura C RobertsDepartment of Agriculture, Western Cape Government, Elsenburg 7607, South Africa.
Béatrice GraslandDepartment of Biostatistics, Jonathan and Karin Fielding School of Public Health, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5777-673X
Ashley C BanyardInfluenza and Avian Virology Workgroup, Department of Virology, Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA-Weybridge), Woodham Lane, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-1286-9825
Martha I NelsonDivision of Intramural Research, National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, USA.
Amandine GambleDepartment of Public & Ecosystem Health, Cornell University, Ithaca, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5430-9124
Thierry BoulinierCentre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), CNRS, Université de Montpellier, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France.ORCID 0000-0002-5898-7667
Guy BaeleDepartment of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.ORCID 0000-0002-1915-7732
Funding
NIAID Centers of Excellence for Influenza Research and Response: Universal Influenza Vaccine Research Activities75N93021C00014 · NIAID · ICAHN SCHOOL OF MEDICINE AT MOUNT SINAI · PI GARCIA-SASTRE, ADOLFO · 2021 to 2025
$62.6MNIAID Centers of Excellence for Influenza Research and Response: Universal Influenza Vaccine Research Activities75N93021C00017 · NIAID · EMORY UNIVERSITY · PI LOWEN, ANICE · 2021 to 2025
$27.3MStatistical Innovation to Integrate Sequences and Phenotypes for Scalable Phylodynamic InferenceR01AI153044 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI Marc A. Suchard · 2021 to 2026
$2.4MNIAID NIH HHS R01 AI153044NIH HHS 75N93021C00014NIH HHS 75N93021C00017
Abstract
High pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 reached the sub-Antarctic and Antarctica in 2023, subsequently spreading to remote locations within this region where it had devastating impacts on seal, penguin and albatross populations. The threat to marine wildlife over this broad area exemplifies the need to understand H5N1 long-distance dispersal and evolution. We obtained 104 novel viral genomic sequences from samples that we collected at South Georgia, Kerguelen, Crozet, Prince Edward, Falklands/Malvinas Islands and the Antarctic Peninsula in a region spanning 8,000 kilometers. Using recent phylogeographic modeling advances we show that H5N1 spread encompassed numerous transmission events between distant locations, accumulating mammalian-adaptive mutations in the process. Seals are the most affected species, but we reveal that the long-distance eastward virus dispersal better aligns with the long-distance movements of large petrels and albatrosses. The risk of H5N1 endemisation, dispersal to other locations and ongoing evolution are highly concerning.
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