Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41884131›Full record

ArticleFrontiers in medicine2026

Risk score to predict fibrosis among Mexican adults: results of the Health Workers Cohort Study.

Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Berenice Rivera-Paredez, Amado D Quezada-Sánchez, Norberto Chávez-Tapia, Paloma Muñoz-Aguirre, Brianda Armenta-Guirado, Daniela Contreras, Yvonne N Flores, Rafael Velázquez-Cruz, Jorge Salmerón

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Article in Frontiers in medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

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2 · The registry

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3 · Its place in the literature

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Edgar Denova-GutiérrezDepartamento de Estudios Experimentales Rurales, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutritición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico.
Berenice Rivera-ParedezCenter of Policy, Population and Health Research, Faculty of Medicine, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico.
Amado D Quezada-SánchezCenter for Evaluation and Surveys Research, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico.
Norberto Chávez-TapiaObesity and Digestive Disease Unit, Medica Sur Clinic and Foundation, Mexico City, Mexico.
Paloma Muñoz-AguirreNational Council of Humanities, Sciences, and Technologies (CONAHCYT), Mexico City, Mexico.
Brianda Armenta-GuiradoDepartment of Health Sciences, University of Sonora, Hermosillo, Mexico.
Daniela ContrerasSchool of Medicine and Health Science, Tecnológico de Monterrey, Santiago de Querétaro, Mexico.
Yvonne N FloresUnit of Epidemiological and Health Services Research, Mexican Social Security Institute, Cuernavaca, Mexico.
Rafael Velázquez-CruzGenomics of Bone Metabolism Laboratory, National Institute of Genomic Medicine, Mexico City, Mexico.
Jorge SalmerónCenter of Policy, Population and Health Research, Faculty of Medicine, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Fibrosis, a severe complication of metabolic-associated fatty liver disease, represents a major concern in the disease progression. Although liver biopsy remains the gold standard for fibrosis diagnosis, its invasive nature and high cost highlight the need for reliable non-invasive alternatives. Aim: This study aimed to develop a simple, non-invasive fibrosis risk score based on clinical and biochemical variables in a Mexican population. Methods: A total of 295 participants from the Health Workers Cohort Study were included. Fibrosis was assessed using transient elastography (FibroScan), which served as the reference standard for the development and validation of the risk score. Participants were classified according to the Meta-analysis of Histological Data in Viral Hepatitis (METAVIR) system. The diagnostic performance of candidate predictors was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and optimal cutoffs for fibrosis detection were identified. Results: The fibrosis risk score developed for the Mexican population, including sex, triglycerides, glucose, waist circumference, hypertension, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, body mass index (BMI), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT), and insulin, achieved an area under the ROC (AUROC) of 81.1% (95% CI, 74.4, 87.8). In the subsample with available insulin measurements, the AUROC was comparable (79.8, 95% CI, 72.9-86.8). When compared with existing fibrosis scores, including the BARD score (based on BMI, aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase (AST/ALT) ratio, and type 2 diabetes) and the AST/ALT ratio, the newly developed score demonstrated superior diagnostic accuracy for fibrosis detection. Conclusion: This fibrosis risk score, based on routinely available clinical and biochemical data, demonstrated high diagnostic accuracy in the Mexican adult population. As a non-invasive tool, it may facilitate the early identification of fibrosis in primary care settings and reduce the need for liver biopsy. Further validation in larger and more diverse populations is warranted.

Indexed as

adult populationFibroscanfibrosisMETAVIRreceiving operating characteristic (ROC)

Identifiers

PMID41884131
PMCPMC13008980

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