ArticleInternational journal of general medicine2026
Dynamic Monitoring of Thyroid-Stimulating Hormone Receptor Antibody and Extraocular Muscle Thickness: A Clinical Risk Stratification Model for Recurrence Risk Post-Glucocorticoid Therapy in TED Patients.
Article in International journal of general medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Objective: To develop a clinical risk stratification model for thyroid eye disease (TED) recurrence post-glucocorticoid therapy by integrating dynamic thyroid-stimulating hormone receptor antibody (TRAb), extraocular muscle (EOM) thickness, and baseline clinical-biochemical indicators, with only internal validation. Methods: A single-center retrospective cohort study of 426 TED patients (2016-2023) was conducted. Recurrence (12-month follow-up) was adjudicated by two ophthalmologists. LASSO regression screened predictors, and multiple machine learning models were built and validated via 10-fold cross-validation. Model performance was assessed by AUC and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: 98 patients (23.0%) had recurrence, with 89% occurring after 6 months post-treatment. Recurrent patients showed slower TRAb decline and persistent EOM thickening. 15 key predictors were identified, and the random forest (RF) model had the best performance (AUC=0.92, 95% CI: 0.88-0.95; accuracy=0.87) with consistent subgroup results (Events Per Variable=6.5, potential overfitting risk). Conclusion: This internally validated risk stratification model identifies factors associated with TED recurrence post-glucocorticoid therapy, with dynamic TRAb and EOM thickness as key indicators. The findings are preliminary due to no external validation and temporal limitations, and prospective multi-center studies are required before clinical implementation to inform individualized follow-up.
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