Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41879526›Full record

ArticleCognitive and behavioral neurology : official journal of the Society for Behavioral and Cognitive Neurology2026

Refining the Parkinson's Disease Risk Estimator for Decline In Cognition Tool (PREDICT).

Tara C Carlisle, Lauren B Gunn-Sandell, William L Lippitt, Shuai Zhu, Luis D Medina, Samantha K Holden, Amy W Amara, Brianne M Bettcher, Nichole E Carlson

Abstract read
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Article in Cognitive and behavioral neurology : official journal of the Society for Behavioral and Cognitive Neurology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

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2 · The registry

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3 · Its place in the literature

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Tara C CarlisleDepartment of Neurology, Behavioral Neurology Section, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado.ORCID 0000-0002-2110-3610
Lauren B Gunn-SandellDepartment of Biostatistics and Informatics, Colorado School of Public Health, Aurora, Colorado.ORCID 0009-0001-4673-2114
William L LippittDepartment of Biostatistics and Informatics, Colorado School of Public Health, Aurora, Colorado.ORCID 0000-0001-8494-3126
Shuai ZhuDepartment of Biostatistics and Informatics, Colorado School of Public Health, Aurora, Colorado.ORCID 0009-0000-6446-3045
Luis D MedinaDepartment of Psychology, University of Houston, Houston, Texas.ORCID 0000-0001-8163-7772
Samantha K HoldenDepartment of Neurology, Behavioral Neurology Section, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado.ORCID 0000-0001-6494-0606
Amy W AmaraUniversity of Colorado Movement Disorders Center, Aurora, Colorado.ORCID 0000-0003-0762-9656
Brianne M BettcherDepartment of Neurology, Behavioral Neurology Section, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado.ORCID 0000-0001-8311-1985
Nichole E CarlsonDepartment of Biostatistics and Informatics, Colorado School of Public Health, Aurora, Colorado.ORCID 0000-0003-0679-6663

Funding

Investigating the Contribution of Peripheral versus Central Nervous System Immune Dysfunction to Cognitive AgingR01AG058772 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO DENVER · PI BETTCHER, BRIANNE MAGOUIRK · 2019 to 2023
$3.7M
NIA NIH HHS R01 AG058772University of Colorado Movement Disorders Center Pilot Grant (2020), University of Colorado School of Medicine Department of Neurology Intradepartmental Grant (2022-2023)
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAlthough cognitive decline in Parkinson disease (PD) is common, there are currently no easily accessible clinical tools to predict the risk of cognitive decline in PD.

objectiveTo refine a tool to predict cognitive decline in PD and identify potentially modifiable factors.

methodsWe used neuropsychological scores from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative de novo PD cohort to calculate a composite cognitive score (CCS) for each participant. Participants with a decrease of ≥0.5 SD in CCS between baseline and Year 4 were considered to have cognitive decline (PD-Decline), as predicted by conditional linear mixed modeling to account for nonignorable dropouts. We identified risk factors for PD-Decline using logistic regression and developed the PD Risk Estimator for Decline In Cognition Tool (PREDICT) scoring system using the regression β coefficients. The selected risk factors and the discriminative ability of the PREDICT scoring system were evaluated using bootstrapped samples.

resultsParticipants with excessive daytime sleepiness (odds ratio [OR]=2.8; 95% CI [1.3, 6.0]), moderate-severe motor symptoms (OR=2.6; 95% CI [1.2, 5.4]), and fewer years of formal education (OR=2.2; 95% CI [1.1, 4.1]) had significantly increased odds of being categorized as PD-decline. Possible PREDICT scores ranged from 0 to 3.5. The average bootstrap sensitivity and specificity were 59.9% and 43.5%, respectively.

conclusionWe identified excessive daytime sleepiness and moderate-severe motor symptoms as potentially modifiable factors. In the future, PREDICT may offer wider opportunities for personalized risk assessment and potential risk reduction.

Indexed as

Cognitive DysfunctionParkinson DiseaseAgedDisease ProgressionFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedNeuropsychological TestsRisk AssessmentRisk Factorscognitive declinedementiaeducational statusParkinson’s diseaserisk factorssleep

Identifiers

PMID41879526
PMCPMC13220935

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.