ArticleEpidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland)2026
Trends in Tuberculosis Incidence and Mortality in South Africa and Bulgaria (2000-2023): The Impact of Income, Poverty, Unemployment, and Universal Health Coverage.
Article in Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland), 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- A retrospective analysis of tuberculosis notification trends and spatial distribution in South Africa, 2005-2012.Discover public health · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundTuberculosis (TB) remains a major global public health challenge, with substantial variation across countries. South Africa has one of the highest TB incidence and mortality rates globally, while Bulgaria, a low-incidence country, faces a persistent TB burden among vulnerable populations.
objectivesTo compare national trends in TB incidence and mortality in South Africa and Bulgaria from 2000 to 2023 and explore associations with selected socioeconomic indicators and health system coverage.
methodsAn ecological, descriptive, analytical study used national-level data from the WHO, World Bank, and official statistics. TB trends were analyzed alongside income, poverty, unemployment, and Universal Health Coverage indicators. Time series measures and Pearson correlation were used descriptively to summarize co-variation over time.
resultsBetween 2000 and 2023, TB incidence declined by approximately 44% in the Republic of South Africa and 69% in Bulgaria. In both countries, TB incidence co-varied strongly with unemployment (RSA: r = 0.805; BG: r = 0.723). In Bulgaria, TB incidence was also strongly negatively associated with GDP per capita (r = -0.910), whereas no significant association with GDP was observed in South Africa. These findings indicate that TB trends co-varied more closely with labour market conditions in both contexts, while broader economic growth co-occurred with declining TB incidence only in Bulgaria.
conclusionsTB trends co-occurred with changes in socioeconomic conditions and health system coverage, with differing patterns across contexts. Findings highlight the relevance of equity-oriented, context-specific TB control strategies integrated with social and economic policies.
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