ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2026
Dengue transmission dynamics in an urban setting in western India.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Dengue vaccines and serotype complexity: Why India needs a calibrated strategy.The Indian journal of medical research · 2026Review
- Retrospective GIS-based spatial analysis of dengue case distribution across housing typologies in Malaysia.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Seroprevalence of dengue virus infection in India.Bioinformation · 2026Article
- Spatial distribution and risk assessment of dengue incidence at district level across major climatic zones in India.PloS one · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
14 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundGoa state, located on India's western coast, has seen an increase in dengue cases in the last decade. Systematic characterization of case trends, serotypes, affected demographics, spatiotemporal clusters and hot spots, and environmental determinants was undertaken to guide evidence-based dengue prevention and control policies in Goa and across western India.
methodA health center level spatiotemporal analysis of dengue from 2011-2024 was performed using passive surveillance data routinely collected from all 34 health facilities through the National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme, Directorate of Health Services, Goa. The dengue trends were analyzed using the Seasonal Mann-Kendall (SMK) test. The space-time trends, dengue case clusters (high and low transmission zones across Goa), and forest-based forecasting were performed using the space-time pattern mining framework in ArcGIS Pro 3.x. The negative binomial generalized linear model with log link was used to quantify location effects. The correlation between climate change and rising dengue incidences was determined using a distributed lag non-linear model.
resultsThe dominant dengue virus serotype in Goa was DENV-2, accounting for 58.6% of infections, followed by DENV-1 (21.51%), DENV-3 (17.87%), and DENV-4 (2.03%). The clusters of dengue cases were predominantly observed in North Goa-the SMK test showed a significant positive trend across 16 of the 17 health facilities in the district. The space-time analysis showed a significant monotonic increase (standardized Mann-Kendall Z-statistics ≈ 3.94; p < 0.001) of dengue cases in recurrent high-high clusters in Candolim, Porvorim, Siolim, Pernem, Panaji, Saligao, Mapusa, and Vasco health centers. Forest-based forecasting for 2025-2029 predicts consistent caseloads in the high-high cluster, with an average annual increase of ~21% expected cases. The regression model showed the significance of climatic variables with a lag period of 2-3 months and a total annual rainfall threshold of 630 mm in North Goa and 607 mm in South Goa. Rainfall above this threshold could lead to higher dengue transmission.
conclusionIntegrating space-time analytics, negative binomial modelling, and climate-lagged associations produced operationally useful risk maps and short-term forecasts. These outputs justify pre-monsoon source reduction, targeted vector control, serotype-guided surveillance, and climate-informed early warning for dengue in Goa and comparable settings in western India.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.