Climate change mitigation and workers' interests: why framing a Green New Deal as redistributive and security-enhancing is key to popularity.

Background: There is urgent need for comprehensive climate change policies to mitigate impacts and protect the interests of those most vulnerable to its worst effects. The Labour Government has rejected its own 2021 £28bn annual investment in climate change policies on account of commitment to economic restraint and public opinion. Not only does this pose real risks to the UK's ability to respond to climate change, it may also reduce a range of social and economic benefits. Methods: We report findings of innovative mixed-methods survey analysis of public perceptions of an illustrative Green New Deal within three surveys (1) n=693; 2) n=10; 3) n=2,200) of adult UK residents conducted between November 2023-January 2024. Results: We analyse the findings of survey 3 to show that levels of support for a Green New Deal are high across parties and demographic groups, and increase further when voters are presented with narrative justifications adversarially co-produced with opponents - termed 'haters' - of the policy. We find clear associations between risk of destitution and various other socioeconomic characteristics, health status and levels of support. We present innovative Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) of these associations and find moderately strong positive correlations with levels of support for key infrastructural policies. Conclusions: This article presents further evidence in support of the notion that exposure to risk of destitution, which varies by age, is a key determinant of policy preference at a time in which political affiliation is increasingly fluid and the prima facie need for a Green New Deal is considerable. This suggests that, in order to understand preferences and to present responses to challenges, there is good reason to focus on material outcomes. Given the importance of a Green New Deal to enhancing financial security, progressive politicians have every reason to commit to substantive reform.