Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41863152›Full record

ArticleTropical medicine & international health : TM & IH2026

Spatiotemporal Patterns and Socioeconomic Determinants of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Piauí, Northeast Brazil, 2001-2024.

José Mário Nunes da Silva, Viriato Campelo, Walter Massa Ramalho

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Article in Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

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2 · The registry

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3 · Its place in the literature

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

José Mário Nunes da SilvaCentre for Tropical Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Brasília, Brasília, DF, Brazil.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6674-0939
Viriato CampeloNúcleo de Ensino e Pesquisa em Tuberculose, Federal University of Piauí, Teresina, PI, Brazil.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7515-2389
Walter Massa RamalhoCentre for Tropical Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Brasília, Brasília, DF, Brazil.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5085-5670

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) remains a major public health problem, strongly associated with social and territorial inequalities. This study aimed to analyse temporal trends, spatiotemporal transmission patterns and socioeconomic determinants of PTB in the state of Piauí, Northeast Brazil, from 2001 to 2024.

methodsAn ecological study was conducted using official surveillance data on newly reported PTB cases at the municipal level. Temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal analytical methods were applied to investigate long-term trends, transmission patterns and socioeconomic determinants associated with PTB incidence.

resultsA total of 17,186 PTB cases were reported. Time-series analysis showed a sustained decline in incidence between 2001 and 2015, followed by a period of gradual recovery starting in 2016. Seasonality remained stable, with peaks occurring between April and June. Persistent spatial heterogeneity was identified, with higher-risk clusters concentrated in urban municipalities. Multivariate spatiotemporal time-series analysis revealed the predominance of the endemic component, with a secondary contribution from the autoregressive component and minimal contribution from the spatiotemporal component. In the spatial Bayesian analysis, PTB incidence was associated with AIDS incidence (Relative Risk [RR] = 1.11; 95% Credible Interval [CrI]: 1.05-1.18), the number of nurses per 1000 inhabitants (RR = 1.08; 95% CrI: 1.03-1.13) and per capita municipal health expenditure (RR = 0.94; 95% CrI: 0.89-0.98).

conclusionsPTB in the Piauí exhibited heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns, being sustained primarily by endemic factors and persistent structural inequalities. Control strategies should be territorially targeted, considering local transmission patterns and the identified determinants.

Indexed as

Tuberculosis, PulmonaryBayes TheoremBrazilFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleRisk FactorsSeasonsSocioeconomic Disparities in HealthSocioeconomic FactorsSpatio-Temporal AnalysisBayesian analysisBrazilsocioeconomic factorsspatial analysistime series analysistuberculosis

Identifiers

PMID41863152
PMCPMC13246586

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.