Non-communicable diseases, COVID-19 and labour market outcomes.

The COVID-19 pandemic affected people with Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) in multiple ways. However, limited attention has been paid to its impact on labour outcomes for individuals with pre-existing NCDs. Given the heightened vulnerability of individuals with NCDs to COVID-19, the pandemic and related lockdown measures may have disproportionately influenced their employment prospects. Our study investigates the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the employment status and work hours of individuals with NCDs. We use data from the Understanding Society COVID-19 study in the UK, supplemented with main-stage Understanding Society surveys. We apply a difference-in-difference approach to estimate the pandemic’s impact on labour market outcomes over time. Our results indicate that COVID-19 significantly reduced both the likelihood of employment and working hours among individuals with NCDs relative to those without. These effects varied by age, gender, sector of employment (key workers vs. non-key workers), and type of NCDs. We further examine potential causes for the reduction in employment and working hours, and find that while the pandemic did not exacerbate existing health conditions among people with NCDs, their reduced labour market participation was largely driven by increased vulnerability to infection, the impact of long COVID, and the effects of public health interventions. Our study provides deeper insights into the post-pandemic contraction of the UK labour market, suggesting that the combined effects of NCDs and COVID-19 have contributed to a decline in workforce participation.