Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41859077›Full record

SynthesisFrontiers in immunology2026

Prognostic value of baseline circulating tumor DNA levels in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Yonghe Liao, Yuxuan Lin, Bo Luo, Jinhai Shen

Abstract readSystematic ReviewMeta-Analysis
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Frontiers in immunology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Yonghe LiaoDepartment of Pharmacy, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, Guangxi, China.
Yuxuan LinDepartment of Pharmacy, Guangxi Hospital Division of The First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Nanning, Guangxi, China.
Bo LuoState Key Laboratory of Natural Medicines, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
Jinhai ShenState Key Laboratory of Natural Medicines, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) remains a clinically aggressive and lethal disease. Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA), as a minimally invasive biomarker, has shown prognostic utility in several solid tumors. However, its clinical relevance in mCRPC has not been comprehensively elucidated. Methods: A systematic search of PubMed and EMBASE was conducted from inception to July 2025 to identify studies evaluating the prognostic impact of baseline ctDNA levels in patients with mCRPC. Eligible studies reported associations between ctDNA levels and survival outcomes. Pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), radiographic PFS (rPFS), and prostate specific antigen PFS (PSA-PFS) using random-effects models. Results: Twenty-four studies encompassing 5,272 patients met the inclusion criteria. Elevated baseline ctDNA levels were significantly associated with inferior OS (HR: 3.45; 95% CI: 2.77-4.31), PFS (HR: 2.26; 95% CI: 1.74-2.93), rPFS (HR: 2.39; 95% CI: 1.85-3.10), and PSA-PFS (HR: 2.50; 95% CI: 1.81-3.46). Subgroup analyses showed that the negative prognostic impact of high baseline ctDNA levels on OS remained consistent regardless of detection methods, treatment types, and stratification strategies. Conclusion: High baseline ctDNA levels-regardless of measurement approach or therapeutic context-are associated with markedly worse clinical outcomes in mCRPC. These findings highlight ctDNA as a clinically meaningful, noninvasive prognostic biomarker, supporting its integration into personalized risk stratification frameworks and therapeutic decision-making in mCRPC. Systematic Review Registration: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/, identifier CRD420251108650.

Indexed as

Biomarkers, TumorCirculating Tumor DNAProstatic Neoplasms, Castration-ResistantHumansMaleNeoplasm MetastasisPrognosisBiomarkers, TumorCirculating Tumor DNAbiomarkercirculating tumor DNAmeta-analysismetastatic castration-resistant prostate cancersurvival outcomes

Identifiers

PMID41859077
PMCPMC12996060

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.