ArticleiScience2026
Landscape-socioeconomic feedback mechanisms in Sichuan's river basins.
Article in iScience, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Landscape fragmentation and socio-economic systems interact in complex, bidirectional ways. This study examines three Sichuan river basins with similar natural conditions but varying socio-economic gradients using land use and socio-economic data (2000-2020). Analyses combining PCA, rolling-window Granger causality, and Random Forest-SHAP models revealed distinct basin-specific patterns: Jialingjiang exhibited the highest fragmentation, Minjiang the optimal landscape integrity, and Tuojiang showed transitional traits. Causality tests identified land-use-dependent interactions, with cropland acting as a "stable buffer," forest as "context-sensitive," and grassland as "dynamically vulnerable." SHAP analysis highlighted population density as the main socio-economic driver of fragmentation, while edge density most affected socio-economic outcomes, with policy-driven population agglomeration altering traditional correlations. The findings provide a scientific basis for targeted sustainable management in river basins.
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