Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41857031›Full record

ArticleNature communications2026

The relative role of direct orbital forcing versus CO

C J R Williams, N S Lord, A T Kennedy-Asser, X Ren, D A Richards, M Crucifix, A Kontula, M Thorne, P J Valdes, G L Foster and 3 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

C J R WilliamsSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK. c.j.r.williams@bristol.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1791-2463
N S LordFathom, Bristol, UK.
A T Kennedy-AsserSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5143-8932
X RenSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
D A RichardsSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8389-8079
M CrucifixEarth and Life Institute,, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3437-4911
A KontulaTeollisuuden Voima Oyj, Eurajoki, Finland.
M ThorneMike Thorne and Associates Limited, Quarry Cottage, Hamsterley, Bishop Auckland, Co, Durham, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4035-2700
P J ValdesSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1902-3283
G L FosterSchool of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
R M BrownSchool of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
E L McClymontDepartment of Geography, Durham University, Durham, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1562-8768
D J LuntSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3585-6928

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

During the Quaternary (the last 2.58 million years), Earth's climate has fluctuated between glacials and interglacials, paced by external forcings and mediated by internal feedbacks. However, General Circulation Models (GCMs), essential for addressing the mechanisms associated with these fluctuations, require substantial computational resources, meaning they are unsuitable for exploring orbital-scale variability on million-year timescales. Here, we use a GCM to calibrate a faster statistical model, or emulator, and apply this to the Quaternary. We show a good agreement between the emulated climate and proxy data over the last 800,000 years, especially the timing of glacial-interglacial cycles. A series of sensitivity experiments allows us to identify the dominant components driving long-term climate change. The results show that a combination of the CO

Identifiers

PMID41857031
PMCPMC13168665

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.