Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41856300›Full record

ArticleAnnals of epidemiology2026

Quantifying the number of people who would benefit from HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the United States: A comparison of behavioral, acquisition-risk based, and economic metrics.

Minttu M Rönn, Athena P Kourtis, Yizhi Liang, Lijia Zheng, Teresa Puente, Ya-Lin A Huang, Weiming Zhu, Rupa R Patel, Jeffrey Wiener, Karen W Hoover and 3 more

Abstract readComparative Study
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Annals of epidemiology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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0citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Minttu M RönnDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States. Electronic address: mronn@hsph.harvard.edu.
Athena P KourtisDivision of HIV Prevention, National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD and TB Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, United States.
Yizhi LiangDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States.
Lijia ZhengDepartment of Health Policy, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA, United States.
Teresa PuenteDepartment of Health Policy, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA, United States.
Ya-Lin A HuangDivision of HIV Prevention, National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD and TB Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, United States.
Weiming ZhuDivision of HIV Prevention, National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD and TB Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, United States.
Rupa R PatelDivision of HIV Prevention, National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD and TB Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, United States.
Jeffrey WienerDivision of HIV Prevention, National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD and TB Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, United States.
Karen W HooverDivision of HIV Prevention, National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD and TB Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, United States.
Michelle Van HandelOffice of Director, National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD and TB Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, United States.
Nicolas A MenziesDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States.
Joshua A SalomonDepartment of Health Policy, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA, United States.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeWe developed metrics to estimate the number of people who could benefit from PrEP using clinical, behavioral, and economic considerations.

methodsWe estimated the distribution of annual HIV acquisition risk in the U.S. population and the number who would benefit from PrEP based on HIV acquisition risk thresholds. Estimates were generated for men who have sex with men (MSM), men who have sex with women (MSW), women who have sex with men (WSM), and people who inject drugs (PWID). Populations were stratified by state, age, and race and ethnicity. Adult PWID were stratified by state and sex. We also derived a measure anchored on a willingness-to-pay threshold to gain one quality-adjusted life year (QALY).

resultsWe estimated 31-57% of MSM could benefit from PrEP by HIV acquisition risk thresholds, and 30% when using the cost-per-QALY threshold. For PWID, estimates ranged from 7% (cost-per-QALY) to 60% (highest risk threshold). MSW and WSM had the lowest proportions estimated to benefit (0-11%), but the absolute number of individuals remained large due to the size of these populations. DISCUSSION: These estimates provide a broader framework in which to examine need for PrEP at the population and program level in the United States.

Indexed as

Anti-HIV AgentsHIV InfectionsPre-Exposure ProphylaxisAdultCost-Benefit AnalysisFemaleHomosexuality, MaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedQuality-Adjusted Life YearsRisk-TakingSexual BehaviorSubstance Abuse, IntravenousUnited StatesAnti-HIV AgentsHIVHIV preventionPre-exposure prophylaxis

Identifiers

PMID41856300

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.