Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41854411›Full record

ArticleClinical cancer research : an official journal of the American Association for Cancer Research2026

Use of ctDNA in Older Women with ER+ Breast Cancer to Facilitate Surgical De-escalation: A Prospective, Hybrid-Decentralized Trial with Correlative Studies.

Neil Carleton, Alexander C Chang, Fangyuan Chen, Shannon L Puhalla, Julia Foldi, Hunter Waltermire, Antony Tin, Michael S Cowher, Kristin Lupinacci, Emilia J Diego and 16 more

Registry-linked trialAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Clinical cancer research : an official journal of the American Association for Cancer Research, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT05914792 (Longitudinal ctDNA Monitoring in Older Women With ER+ Breast Cancer Who Forego Upfront Surgery in Favor of Primary Endocrine Therapy), which is not on this map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT05914792 active not recruitingnot on this map

Longitudinal ctDNA Monitoring in Older Women With ER+ Breast Cancer Who Forego Upfront Surgery in Favor of Primary Endocrine Therapy

TypeobservationalSponsorUniversity of PittsburghRan2022 to 2026Enrolled49ConditionsBreast Cancer
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Observational
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

26 authors.

Neil CarletonWomen's Cancer Research Center, UPMC Hillman Cancer Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.ORCID 0000-0001-6985-7510
Alexander C ChangWomen's Cancer Research Center, UPMC Hillman Cancer Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.ORCID 0000-0001-9108-1536
Fangyuan ChenWomen's Cancer Research Center, UPMC Hillman Cancer Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.ORCID 0000-0002-9891-4753
Shannon L PuhallaWomen's Cancer Research Center, UPMC Hillman Cancer Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.ORCID 0000-0001-8873-8373
Julia FoldiWomen's Cancer Research Center, UPMC Hillman Cancer Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.ORCID 0000-0002-7504-867X
Hunter WaltermireWomen's Cancer Research Center, UPMC Hillman Cancer Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.ORCID 0009-0002-2027-153X
Antony TinNatera, Inc. , San Carlos, California.ORCID 0009-0006-4489-5944
Michael S CowherDivision of Breast Surgical Oncology, Department of Surgery, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.ORCID 0000-0002-6377-1131
Kristin LupinacciDivision of Breast Surgical Oncology, Department of Surgery, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.ORCID 0000-0002-3779-9878
Emilia J DiegoDivision of Breast Surgical Oncology, Department of Surgery, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.ORCID 0000-0003-2155-817X
Quratulain SabihDivision of Breast Surgical Oncology, Department of Surgery, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.ORCID 0000-0001-7191-2654
Ronald R JohnsonDivision of Breast Surgical Oncology, Department of Surgery, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.ORCID 0000-0002-4458-7398
Monica MalhotraWomen's Cancer Research Center, UPMC Hillman Cancer Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.ORCID 0000-0002-2625-1049
Amanda LaubenthalDivision of Hematology and Oncology, Department of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.ORCID 0009-0000-9283-1175
Vikram GorantlaWomen's Cancer Research Center, UPMC Hillman Cancer Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.ORCID 0009-0008-7530-6350
Marija BalicWomen's Cancer Research Center, UPMC Hillman Cancer Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.ORCID 0000-0001-9482-9191
Rohit BhargavaDepartment of Pathology, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.ORCID 0000-0002-1225-8418
Marion JoyTranslational Pathology Imaging Laboratory, UPMC Hillman Cancer Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.ORCID 0009-0008-9045-7456
Tanner FreemanDepartment of Pathology, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.ORCID 0000-0003-1200-8790
Catherine BridgesNatera, Inc. , San Carlos, California.ORCID 0000-0003-1101-0848
Ekaterina KalashnikovaNatera, Inc. , San Carlos, California.ORCID 0000-0003-1078-0656
Angel RodriguezNatera, Inc. , San Carlos, California.ORCID 0000-0003-0735-3039
Minetta C LiuNatera, Inc. , San Carlos, California.ORCID 0000-0002-8206-5232
Steffi OesterreichWomen's Cancer Research Center, UPMC Hillman Cancer Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.ORCID 0000-0002-2537-6923
Adrian V LeeWomen's Cancer Research Center, UPMC Hillman Cancer Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.ORCID 0000-0001-9917-514X
Priscilla F McAuliffeWomen's Cancer Research Center, UPMC Hillman Cancer Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.ORCID 0000-0002-2933-1191

Funding

VECTOR CORE FACILITYP30CA047904 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI CHRISTOPHER J. BAKKENIST · 1988 to 2026
$158.0M
Training in Cellular & Molecular Mechanisms of Tumor RejectionT32CA082084 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI Robert J Binder, Dario AA Vignali · 1999 to 2026
$9.2M
High-Throughput Computing for Genomics and Bioinformatics ResearchS10OD028483 · OD · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI LEE, ADRIAN V · 2021 to 2021
$574k
Promotion of ER+ Breast Cancer Progression in the ElderlyF30CA264963 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI CARLETON, NEIL · 2021 to 2025
$243k
National Cancer Institute (NCI) 5T32CA82084National Cancer Institute (NCI) F30CA264963National Cancer Institute (NCI) P30CA047904National Institutes of Health (NIH) S10OD028483NCI NIH HHS F30 CA264963NCI NIH HHS P30 CA047904NCI NIH HHS T32 CA082084NIH HHS S10 OD028483Shear Family Foundation (Shear Family Foundation Inc)
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeFor older patients with competing comorbidities, optimizing oncologic therapies is of paramount importance. Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is a validated prognostic factor across solid tumors and may provide a strategy to identify patients for whom safe de-escalation of certain therapies is possible. EXPERIMENTAL

designIn this prospective, hybrid-decentralized trial (n = 43 patients; NCT05914792) that integrated clinical outcomes, patient- and caregiver-reported outcomes, and correlative tissue analysis, the primary objective was to determine if ctDNA levels were associated with tumor progression in older patients who opted to forgo breast cancer surgery in favor of primary endocrine therapy (pET).

resultsctDNA levels were highly concordant with imaging findings, and a lack of ctDNA clearance at 6 months was associated with tumor progression. In a competing risk regression adjusted for patient age, tumor stage, tumor grade, and tumor Ki-67, pretreatment ctDNA positivity was associated with a significant risk of tumor progression (HR, 30; 95% confidence interval, 4.4-209; P = 0.0011). No patients with pretreatment ctDNA negativity experienced tumor progression. In correlative analyses examining ctDNA-positive tumors progressing on pET, we identified populations of CD11+ T cell-interacting macrophages that upregulate CD109 and CD89 and secrete immunosuppressive chemokines to create a favorable environment for cancer epithelial cell proliferation.

conclusionsThese findings suggest that ctDNA may be a modality to identify older patients who can safely receive long-term pET, warranting future evaluation in a randomized setting.

Indexed as

Biomarkers, TumorBreast NeoplasmsCirculating Tumor DNAReceptors, EstrogenAgedAged, 80 and overDisease ProgressionFemaleHumansNeoplasm StagingPrognosisProspective StudiesBiomarkers, TumorCirculating Tumor DNAReceptors, Estrogen

Identifiers

PMID41854411
PMCPMC13004172

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.