How to utilise the limited supply of vaccines for Mpox control in Thailand among high-risk GBMSM.

Sutham Jirapanakorn, Bannaporn Hunsin, Akira Endo, Clement Lee, Shihui Jin, Borame Lee Dickens, Thitiya Thiparod

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Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Sutham JirapanakornDepartment of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand.

Bannaporn HunsinDepartment of Mathematics, Mahasarakham University, Maha Sarakham, 44150, Thailand.

Akira EndoSaw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore.

Clement LeeSchool of Mathematics, Statistics and Physics, Newcastle University, United Kingdom.

Shihui JinSaw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore.

Borame Lee DickensSaw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore.

Thitiya ThiparodDepartment of Mathematics, Mahasarakham University, Maha Sarakham, 44150, Thailand.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Mpox re-emerged globally in 2022, disproportionately affecting gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM). In 2024, Thailand became the first Asian country to detect Clade Ib Mpox, prompting urgent decisions on deploying a limited supply of 3000 vaccine doses. However, evidence on the comparative effectiveness of different vaccine allocation and behavioural strategies in this context remains scarce. We developed a deterministic compartmental model of Mpox transmission among high- and low-risk GBMSM, calibrated to Thailand's national surveillance data (January 2023-May 2025). The model simulated a range of hypothetical scenarios under a constrained supply of 3000 vaccine doses, distributed either over a short 5-month period or extended across the 28-month epidemic horizon. We evaluated pre-exposure prophylaxis (

Indexed as

High-risk populationModellingMpox controlPost-exposure prophylaxisVaccination

Identifiers

PMID41853794

DOI10.1016/j.idm.2026.03.002

PMCPMC12995482

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.