ArticleInternational journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease2026
Divergent Trajectories and Risk Factor Attribution of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Burden in China and the United States, 1990-2023: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis with Projections to 2035 Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023.
Article in International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains a leading cause of global mortality. China and the United States, the world's two largest economies accounting for 40% of global COPD burden, lack comprehensive comparative analyses of long-term trends and risk factor attribution. Objective: This study aimed to compare COPD burden trends, decompose age-period-cohort effects, quantify risk factor contributions, and project future trajectories in China and the United States from 1990 to 2023 with forecasts to 2035. Methods: We analyzed Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 data for China and the United States, examining incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) stratified by sex and 17 age groups. Joinpoint regression identified temporal inflection points. Age-period-cohort models decomposed burden into independent effects. Risk factor attribution analyzed eight major exposures. Bayesian methods projected burden to 2035. Results: China demonstrated remarkable declines in age-standardized mortality (58.68% decrease to 46.60 per 100,000) and DALY rates (61.12% decrease to 777.86 per 100,000), with dramatic risk factor reductions: particulate matter pollution declined 82.21%, smoking 68.48%. Conversely, the United States exhibited increasing age-standardized mortality (8.90% increase to 28.89 per 100,000), with female mortality rising 45.64% and smoking-attributable burden declining only 14.09%. Period effects deteriorated in the United States (relative risk: 0.67 to 1.34) while improving in China (1.20 to 0.83). Projections indicated Chinese deaths would surge 135.9% by 2035 despite declining age-standardized rates, while American deaths would increase 30.1% with rising age-standardized rates. Conclusion: Substantial COPD burden reductions are achievable through comprehensive risk factor control as demonstrated by China's success, while persistent deterioration in the United States highlights critical prevention gaps requiring urgent intervention to avert projected burden escalation.
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