ArticleiScience2026
A retrospective cohort study identifies differential diabetes progression among Han, Dai, and Yi groups in Yunnan.
Article in iScience, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
To investigate ethnic differences inprogression from prediabetes to diabetes in a multi-ethnic community, and develop prediction models for diabetes risk and glycemic progression. This 4.7-year retrospective cohort included 4,726 non-diabetic Han, Yi, and Dai individuals. Cox regression was used to analyze the cumulative incidence of diabetes. Two prediction models were developed and validated: a diabetes risk model and GlycoStep, a model for glycemic progression. Prediabetes was significantly associated with diabetes development (HR = 2.25). Over 4.7 years, the cumulative diabetes incidence was 12.7% in the prediabetes group versus 5.5% in normoglycemic individuals. The Yi had the highest incidence, followed by Han and Dai. The diabetes risk model achieved a C-index of 0.76 and AUCs of 0.65-0.80 over 2-4 years, demonstrating effective predictive performance. Similarly, the GlycoStep model exhibited strong predictive ability (C-index: 0.66; AUC range: 0.68-0.77), with ethnic-specific variations. These findings highlight ethnic disparities in diabetes progression and support individualized prevention strategies in multi-ethnic communities.
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