ArticleThe Korean journal of internal medicine2026
Development of Simple Assessment tool for predict imminent risk of Fracture in Elderly women.
Article in The Korean journal of internal medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND/
aimsPreviously developed fracture risk prediction models primarily estimate long-term risk and are limited in their ability to predict imminent fractures. We developed a simplified and practical model to predict the short-term fracture risk (1- to 3-year risk) in elderly Korean women.
methodsWe included 1,440,988 women who underwent a national life-transition health examination at age 66 between 2011 and 2017. The participants were followed-up for 3 years to identify major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs) and hip fractures. Clinical risk factors such as body mass index, bone mineral density, fall history within 6 months, prior fractures within 3 years, recent fractures within 1 year, and recurrent fractures were analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) for these risk factors. Each OR was converted into a risk score, and the total scores were stratified into five groups: 0-4, 5-7, 8-10, 11-14, and 15-18 points.
resultsHigher scores were associated with a significantly increased risk of fractures. At 3 years, the incidences of MOF were 3.4%, 5.8%, 12.0%, 21.3%, and 36.6%, and the hip fracture incidences were 0.13%, 0.26%, 0.59%, 0.73%, and 1.82% across the five groups, respectively.
conclusionThis simplified scoring model is a practical tool for predicting the 1- to 3-year fracture risk in elderly Korean women. By stratifying patients into risk groups based on routine clinical data, it enables the early identification of high-risk individuals and facilitates timely preventive care.
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