ArticleRevista brasileira de epidemiologia = Brazilian journal of epidemiology2026
Noncommunicable chronic diseases and health challenges in 2050.
Article in Revista brasileira de epidemiologia = Brazilian journal of epidemiology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
objectivesThe study aims to analyze the burden of diseases related to noncommunicable chronic diseases (NCDs) and their risk factors (RFs) from 1990 to 2021 and to project of NCDs and RFs for the years 2030 and 2050.
methodsEstimates of risk factors and mortality from NCDs in Brazil and its States were analyzed based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study.
resultsThere was a 37.7% reduction in premature mortality rates from NCDs and a 34% reduction in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) between 1990 and 2021. Projections for 2050 indicate that mortality from cardiovascular diseases will continue to decline and that these will be supplanted by neoplasms. Mortality rates from diabetes tend to increase, while chronic respiratory diseases show a downward trend. In 2021, the main risk factors associated with premature deaths from NCDs were: high blood pressure, smoking, poor diet, high Body Mass Index (BMI), and high fasting glucose. Projections through 2050 point to an increase in risk factors such as obesity, high blood pressure, high glucose, physical inactivity, and poor diet - which may compromise the achievement of the 2050 targets for reducing premature mortality from NCDs.
conclusionThe study points out that global targets may not be achieved, raising an alert to the urgent need to strengthen public policies aimed at the prevention and control of NCDs.
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