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ArticleOsteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA2026

Association of physical activity with fracture: a prospective cohort study of 387,307 Chinese participants.

Qingqing Yang, Baoqi Zeng, Jiaming Zheng, Kai Yu, Lin Dou, Feng Sun

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Article in Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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5 · Who and what money

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6 authors.

Qingqing Yang *Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, China.
Baoqi Zeng *Department of Emergency & Emergency Medicine Research Institute, Tianjin Fifth Central Hospital (Peking University Binhai Hospital), Tianjin, 300450, China. zengbaoqi@126.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4443-6183
Jiaming ZhengAcademy of Clinical Medicine, Medical School, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, West China, China.
Kai YuDepartment of Orthopedics, Beijing Genertec Aerospace Hospital, Beijing, 100074, China.
Lin DouDepartment of Emergency & Emergency Medicine Research Institute, Tianjin Fifth Central Hospital (Peking University Binhai Hospital), Tianjin, 300450, China. doulint@163.com.
Feng SunDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, China. sunfeng@bjmu.edu.cn.

Funding

National Key Clinical Specialty Discipline Construction Program of China 2023283National Natural Science Foundation of China 72474008Tianjin Health Research Project TJWJ2025QN104
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Analyzing data from over 387,000 Chinese adults, we found that moderate physical activity was associated with a lower risk of hip fracture. In contrast, high levels of activity driven by manual labor were associated with increased overall fracture risk. These results highlight the need to differentiate between leisure and occupational exertion in health guidelines.

backgroundFractures are a major health burden in ageing populations, but evidence on the association between physical activity and fracture risk in Chinese adults is scarce. We aimed to investigate the relationship between physical activity and incident fracture in a large Chinese cohort.

methodsIn this prospective cohort study, we included 387,307 participants aged 40-79 years from the China Kadoorie Biobank. Physical activity was assessed via questionnaire and quantified primarily as total physical activity (TPA, metabolic equivalent of task-hours per day [MET-h/day]), with further disaggregation into occupational (OPA) and non-occupational (non-OPA) domains. Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) duration (min/week) was also analyzed. Incident fractures were ascertained through linkage to health insurance databases. Cox models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs.

resultsDuring a median follow-up of 10.1 years, 8964 fractures occurred. Higher levels of TPA were associated with an increased risk of fracture (quartile 3 [16.42-28.19 MET-h/day] HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.25-1.43; quartile 4 [> 28.19 MET-h/day] HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.37-1.58). This elevated risk was primarily driven by OPA. In contrast, non-OPA showed no significant association with fracture risk. A moderate level of TPA (quartile 2 [9.73-16.41 MET-h/day]) was associated with a lower risk of hip fracture (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.71-0.94). When assessed by duration, MVPA of 300-449 min/week or ≥ 450 min/week was also associated with increased fracture risk.

conclusionsHigh levels of physical activity, particularly OPA, are associated with an increased risk of fracture in Chinese middle-aged and older adults, whereas non-OPA shows no such association. Moderate activity was associated with a lower risk of hip fracture. These findings highlight the importance of distinguishing between OPA and OPA in fracture prevention guidance.

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AgedChinaCohort studyFracturePhysical activity

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.