ArticleInfection and drug resistance2026
Evaluation of the Prognostic Value of PCR Cycle Threshold and Mortality in Pulmonary Aspergillosis: A Retrospective Cohort Study.
Article in Infection and drug resistance, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: Pulmonary aspergillosis remains highly lethal despite modern therapy. Although polymerase chain reaction (PCR) has enhanced detection, the clinical significance of its cycle threshold (Ct) values is unclear. The key problem is the lack of validation of Ct values for assessing fungal burden or predicting outcomes, limiting their diagnostic and prognostic utility. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 154 adult patients diagnosed with pulmonary aspergillosis at a tertiary medical center in Taiwan (2021-2024). All patients had a positive Results: Among 154 patients (mean age 70.5 ± 13.5 years; 48.1% female), the optimal Ct cutoff for predicting 30-day mortality was 30.7 (AUC = 0.65, 95% CI 0.56-0.73). Patients with a Ct value < 30.7 had significantly higher 30-day mortality than those with a Ct ≥ 30.7 (71.2% vs 43.1%, p = 0.002). After adjusting for clinical and laboratory confounders, a Ct value < 30.7 remained the independent predictor of mortality (adjusted OR 3.07; 95% CI 1.27-7.39; p = 0.012). Conclusion: A low
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