ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2026
A systematic comparison of methodologies for the estimation of the serial interval.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Serial interval (SI) is a crucial indicator for characterizing the course of epidemic transmission and provides guidance in designing the intervention strategy for preventing epidemic spreading. Many approaches have been developed to estimate the serial intervals, while their effectiveness evaluations are rarely exhibited due to the unavailable of the real SI values. Here, we developed the data-driven based transmission model to simulate the "realistic" epidemics and kept the entire micro-transmission chain to obtain the real SI values for comparison. We firstly found the direct statistic of serial interval obtained from the infector-infectee pairs within households can serve as an accurate representative of the entire population. The households monitored during the early and peak phases of an epidemic provide precise estimations, while the serial interval would be underestimated if the households are collected during the decreasing phase of epidemic. This study reveals that both the
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