ArticleScientific reports2026
Conditional survival rates after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy combined with surgery in intermediate-low locally advanced rectal cancer based on two-centre retrospective analysis.
Article in Scientific reports, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
To evaluate the temporal changes in 5-year conditional survival (CS5) among patients with intermediate-low locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and surgery, and to develop predictive nomograms for individualized CS5 estimation. A retrospective analysis was conducted on patients with intermediate-low LARC treated at two colorectal centres in China between 2012 and 2023. A total of 1,589 eligible patients were enrolled, with a median follow-up of 46.8 months (range, 1–144 months). Conditional survival probabilities were calculated using the formula CS (y|x) = OS(x + y)/OS(x). Cox regression analyses were performed to identify time-dependent prognostic factors influencing CS5, and nomograms predicting CS5 after surviving 1, 2, 3, and 4 years were constructed. CS5 increased steadily with additional years survived. After 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years of survival, CS5 increased to 83.5%, 84.4%, 85.2%, 88.8%, and 92.4%, respectively. At baseline, distance to the anal verge (DTAV), No.253 lymph node positive, post-nCRT CEA, tumour regression grade, and ypTNM stage were identified as independent prognostic factors for overall survival. However, the influence of several factors diminished with accumulating survival time, whereas the prognostic impact of ypTNM stage remained stable and progressively strengthened (HR = 1.81, 1.85, 1.89, and 2.27, all P < 0.001). Notably, patients with yp0–I stage achieved a CS5 of 100% after 3 years of survival, suggesting a potential statistical cure phenomenon. The nomograms predicting CS5 after 1, 2, 3, and 4 years of survival demonstrated acceptable discrimination, with AUCs of 0.731 (95% CI 0.676–0.786), 0.738 (95% CI0.669–0.807), 0.641 (95% CI0.543–0.740), and 0.701 (95% CI0.556–0.847), respectively. CS5 improves substantially over time in patients with intermediate-low LARC after nCRT and surgery, particularly in the yp0–I subgroup, in whom a statistical cure phenomenon may be achieved after 3 years. Time-dependent prognostic dynamics highlight the limitations of traditional survival estimates, while the developed CS5 nomograms offer a practical tool for individualized, stage-adapted follow-up planning. External validation in independent cohorts is warranted.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.