[Trends in burden of osteoporosis in China from 1990 to 2023 and analysis of epidemiological factors].

Objective: To analyze the trends in the burden of osteoporosis-related disease in China and worldwide from 1990 to 2023, and to further estimate the attributable burden of key determinants, so as to inform the formulation of prevention and control strategies for osteoporosis. Methods: Based on the 2023 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study database, the data on mortality, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs) attributable to low bone mineral density (LBMD) among individuals aged 40 years and older in China and globally from 1990 to 2023 were collected. Metrics focused primarily on age-standardized rates, and data were stratified by age group and gender. Joinpoint regression models were employed to estimate the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) to assess trends in the burden. An age-period-cohort analysis was conducted to characterize age, period, and birth cohort effects. Additionally, the Das Gupta decomposition method was applied to decompose the changes in the number of LBMD-attributable deaths in China from 1990 to 2023, quantifying the contributions of population growth, population aging, and changes in age-specific mortality rates. Results: From 1990 to 2023, DALYs rates and YLLs rates attributable to LBMD showed an overall decreasing trend in both China and the world. DALYs rates declined from 311.54/100 000 to 268.55/100 000 in China and from 288.85/100 000 to 265.11/100 000 globally. In China, the YLDs rate increased from 170.42/100 000 to 197.91/100 000, whereas the global YLDs rate remained relatively stable. The burden of LBMD-related disease was consistently higher in women than in men. Falls were the leading cause of LBMD-attributable deaths and DALYs, followed by road injuries, while other types of injuries accounted for a relatively small proportion. Gupta decomposition showed that the number of LBMD-attributable deaths increased by 62.88% in men and 138.25% in women, primarily driven by population growth (contributing 108.33% in men and 138.98% in women) and population aging (contributing 42.26% in men and 70.59% in women), while changes in age-specific mortality rates offset the increase by 87.72% in men and 71.32% in women. Conclusion: From 1990 to 2023, the mortality burden attributable to LBMD in China has decreased overall, but the disability burden has continued to rise, suggesting a shift in osteoporosis-related disease burden from lethality toward disability. Falls are the main attributable cause, and the burden is particularly high among older adults and women. Strengthening bone mineral density screening, fall prevention, and secondary fracture prevention and management is essential to reduce the long-term health losses associated with osteoporosis.