ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2026
Future strategies for phosphorus sustainability amid worsening global cycle imbalances.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Global anthropogenic phosphorus (P) cycle changes require active management with differentiated sustainability strategies across countries. This study developed a universal framework that integrates the comprehensive P flow process with sustainability scenarios to assess global anthropogenic P flow patterns and explore future sustainability pathways and potential. The results indicated that the global P flow imbalance intensified from 1961 to 2022, with over 80% attributed to croplands. Crucially, global trade serves as a significant driving force, redistributing P resources and reinforcing the global complexity of P-pollution footprints, driven by 35 key countries. Our model projects that by 2050, individual measures like reducing fertilizer applications, improving feed conversion efficiency, and recycling organic fertilizers could save 50% of P and reduce P losses by 39%. Crop-livestock integration significantly improved P use efficiency, potentially extending the global phosphate rock extraction period by 400 ± 87 y (mean ± SD). However, due to the low baseline P use efficiency in cropping systems, P recovery from waste in developing countries remains limited, necessitating additional measures alongside the above high-leverage measures. These findings underscore the indispensable role of human consumption and the transformative potential of dietary shifts, which are essential given that no country can achieve significant P sustainability gains solely by reducing food waste or processing losses. Coordinated supply and demand-side measures linking cropping, livestock, and consumption offer key strategies and benefits for systematically and differentially advancing P sustainability at both global and national levels.
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