ArticleEsophagus : official journal of the Japan Esophageal Society2026
Comparative analysis of early-onset and late-onset esophageal cancer burden in China, 1990-2021: based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study.
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Abstract
backgroundEsophageal cancer (EC) represents a significant disease burden in China, exhibiting unique age distribution patterns. Previous research has primarily focused on overall epidemiological characteristics of EC, lacking systematic comparisons of the disease burden between early-onset esophageal cancer (EOEC) and late-onset esophageal cancer (LOEC).
objectiveThe study aims to understand the trends in incidence and death rates of EOEC and LOEC in China from 1990 to 2021.
methodsData on incidence, mortality, and attributable risk factors for EOEC and LOEC in China were sourced from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease study. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to describe temporal trends over the past 32 years. Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) modeling was employed to forecast both EOEC and LOEC's trends for the next 14 years.
resultsFrom 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of EOEC and LOEC in China decreased by 55.52% and 65.16%, respectively, while their age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) fell by 37.65% and 44.06%. Compared to 1990, the peak age group for EC incident cases and deaths shifted to 70-74 years in 2021. BAPC projections revealed that the burden of EOEC would continue to increase in the future, and the burden of LOEC would increase in males (ASIR
conclusionDespite the EC burden in China falling between 1990 and 2021, EOEC and male LOEC burdens will keep rising. Special attention should be given to elderly males as a key demographic, with effective primary prevention measures targeting critical behavioral risk factors such as smoking and alcohol consumption.
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