ArticleScientific reports2026
A mathematical approach to Chikungunya transmission dynamics incorporating media awareness and optimal control.
Article in Scientific reports, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
A compartmental mathematical model was developed to examine the transmission dynamics of chikungunya, integrating media awareness and optimal control strategies. Both asymptomatic and symptomatic infectious categories, along with a media-induced awareness component, were incorporated to more precisely represent epidemiological dynamics. The model's positivity, boundedness, and stability characteristics were confirmed, and the basic reproduction number was calculated using the next-generation matrix method. Model calibration was conducted utilizing cumulative case data from India and high-burden states (Gujarat, Karnataka, and Maharashtra) through maximum likelihood estimation. Sensitivity analysis was performed, and transmission-related parameters, specifically the mosquito biting rate and infection probabilities were identified, as the most significant determinants of epidemic persistence. The system's threshold behavior was demonstrated through contour plots of [Formula: see text] with respect to different pairs of parameters and variations of parameters. A comprehensive control framework incorporating two time-dependent variables-minimization of human-mosquito interaction and augmentation of treatment-was formulated and examined utilizing Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. The optimal control result indicated that the simultaneous application of both controls was associated with the most significant decrease in symptomatic infections, while individual interventions also were found to provide quantifiable advantages. The findings emphasized the necessity of incorporating preventive measures, awareness enhancement, and improved treatment into region-specific chikungunya management strategies.
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