Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41832151›Full record

ArticleNature communications2026

Unpacking sources of transmission in HIV prevention trials with deep-sequence pathogen data.

Lerato E Magosi, Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen, Vlad Novitsky, Molly Pretorius Holme, Janet Moore, Pam Bachanas, Refeletswe Lebelonyane, Christophe Fraser, Sikhulile Moyo, Kathleen E Hurwitz and 7 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

17 authors.

Lerato E MagosiCenter for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA. lmagosi@hsph.harvard.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3388-9892
Eric Tchetgen TchetgenDepartment of Statistics, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Vlad NovitskyHarvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health AIDS Initiative, Department of Immunology and Infectious Disease, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.
Molly Pretorius HolmeHarvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health AIDS Initiative, Department of Immunology and Infectious Disease, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.
Janet MooreDivision of Global HIV/AIDS and TB, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Pam BachanasDivision of Global HIV/AIDS and TB, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Refeletswe LebelonyaneMinistry of Health, Republic of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana.
Christophe FraserOxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Center for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, Old Road Campus, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Sikhulile MoyoBotswana Harvard AIDS Institute Partnership, Gaborone, Botswana.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3821-4592
Kathleen E HurwitzDepartment of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.
Tendani GaolatheBotswana Harvard AIDS Institute Partnership, Gaborone, Botswana.
Ravi GoyalDivision of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.
Joseph MakhemaBotswana Harvard AIDS Institute Partnership, Gaborone, Botswana.
Shahin LockmanHarvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health AIDS Initiative, Department of Immunology and Infectious Disease, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.
Max EssexHarvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health AIDS Initiative, Department of Immunology and Infectious Disease, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.
Victor De GruttolaDivision of Biostatistics, Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity Science, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2772-6242
Marc LipsitchCenter for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA. lipsitch@stanford.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1504-9213

Funding

Mentoring in Patient-Oriented HIV Research in the Era of Universal ARTK24AI131928 · NIAID · BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL · PI SHAHIN LOCKMAN · 2017 to 2026
$1.9M
NIAID NIH HHS K24 AI131928
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

To develop effective HIV prevention strategies to guide public health policy the main sources of infection in HIV prevention studies must be identified. Accordingly, we devised a statistical approach that estimates the relative contribution of different sources of infection in community-randomized trials of infectious disease prevention using deep- (or next generation) sequenced pathogen data. We applied this approach to the Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCPP) and estimated that 90% [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 80-94] of new infections in communities that received combination prevention (including universal HIV test-and-treat) originated from individuals residing in communities outside the trial area. We estimate from our model that the relative benefit of providing the BCPP intervention to all communities nationwide would be a 59% [3-87] reduction in transmissions to recipients in trial communities, exceeding the 30% reduction observed when providing the BCPP intervention to trial communities only. Our results suggest that the impact of the BCPP trial intervention was curtailed by sources of transmission outside the trial area and could be considerably larger if applied nationally. We recommend that the impact of sources of transmission beyond the reach of the intervention be considered when designing and evaluating interventions to inform public health programs.

Indexed as

HIV-1HIV InfectionsBotswanaHigh-Throughput Nucleotide SequencingHumansRandomized Controlled Trials as Topic

Identifiers

PMID41832151
PMCPMC13128811

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.