Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41824492›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2026

Toward AI foundation models for epidemics: Promise, challenges, and paths forward.

Max S Y Lau, C Jessica E Metcalf, Zewen Liu, Bryan T Grenfell, Wei Jin

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Pre-training Epidemic Time Series Forecasters with Compartmental Prototypes.KDD : proceedings. International Conference on Knowledge Discovery & Data Mining · 2026
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Max S Y LauDepartment of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322.ORCID 0000-0001-6590-0294
C Jessica E MetcalfDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.ORCID 0000-0003-3166-7521
Zewen LiuDepartment of Computer Science, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322.
Bryan T Grenfell *Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Wei Jin *Department of Computer Science, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322.

Funding

SCH: Towards Foundation Epidemic Models for Respiratory Infections: A Novel Spatiotemporal Machine Learning FrameworkR01AI197111 · NIAID · EMORY UNIVERSITY · PI Wei Jin, Siu Yin (Max) Lau · 2025 to 2026
$599k
HHS | NIH | National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) 1R01AI197111NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI197111
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Foundation models-large AI systems pretrained on broad, heterogeneous data-are transforming scientific discovery. These models (e.g., GPT, GenCast, AlphaFold) excel at learning generalizable representations and adapting to new tasks with limited data. Yet, epidemic modeling has not experienced a comparable transformation. Traditional models remain pathogen-specific and often struggle to generate rapid insights during emerging outbreaks, as starkly illustrated by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. This Perspective asks whether the foundation model paradigm can extend to epidemic science:

Indexed as

Artificial IntelligenceCOVID-19EpidemicsEpidemiological ModelsHumansPandemicsSARS-CoV-2AIepidemic foundation modelsmachine learning, infectious disease

Identifiers

PMID41824492
PMCPMC13037875

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.