Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41824010›Full record

ArticleAmbio2026

A 2026 horizon scan for biodiversity conservation in South Africa.

Colleen L Seymour, Krystal A Tolley, Tsungai Zengeya, Dian Spear, Jeran A Cloete, Anisha Dayaram, Jessica M da Silva, Graham J Alexander, Kate Handley, Grant S Joseph and 4 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Ambio, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Colleen L SeymourSouth African National Biodiversity Institute, Kirstenbosch Research Centre, Kirstenbosch Gardens, PVT Bag X7, Claremont, 7753, South Africa. c.seymour@sanbi.org.za.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6729-2576
Krystal A TolleyDepartment of Zoology, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park, Johannesburg, 2006, South Africa.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7778-1963
Tsungai ZengeyaSouth African National Biodiversity Institute, Kirstenbosch Research Centre, Kirstenbosch Gardens, PVT Bag X7, Claremont, 7753, South Africa.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0946-0452
Dian SpearCentre for Sustainability Transitions, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, 7600, South Africa.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2417-3980
Jeran A CloeteSouth African National Biodiversity Institute, Kirstenbosch Research Centre, Kirstenbosch Gardens, PVT Bag X7, Claremont, 7753, South Africa.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0514-3110
Anisha DayaramSouth African National Biodiversity Institute, Kirstenbosch Research Centre, Kirstenbosch Gardens, PVT Bag X7, Claremont, 7753, South Africa.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4160-812X
Jessica M da SilvaSouth African National Biodiversity Institute, Kirstenbosch Research Centre, Kirstenbosch Gardens, PVT Bag X7, Claremont, 7753, South Africa.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8385-1166
Graham J AlexanderSchool of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, 1 Jan Smuts Ave, Johannesburg, 2050, South Africa.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3991-4099
Kate HandleyBiodiversity Law Centre, Kirstenbosch National Botanical Gardens Centre for Biodiversity Conservation, Claremont, 7753, South Africa.
Grant S JosephFitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, 7701, South Africa.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8731-9828
Lavhelesani D SimbaDepartment of Biotechnology and Biological Sciences, University of Fort Hare, Alice, 5700, South Africa.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7259-0498
Kate SnaddonFreshwater Research Centre, Imhoff Farm, Kommetjie, 7975, South Africa.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1678-8421
Graham P von MaltitzSouth African National Biodiversity Institute, Kirstenbosch Research Centre, Kirstenbosch Gardens, PVT Bag X7, Claremont, 7753, South Africa.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9272-1272
Peter J CarrickInstitute for Communities and Wildlife in Africa (iCWild), Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, 7701, South Africa.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1910-7313

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Horizon scans identify potential changes, enabling proactive rather than reactive conservation strategies. Here, in a follow up to the 2020 horizon scan, 14 biodiversity professionals from different sectors identify ten emerging issues potentially relevant to biodiversity conservation in South Africa over the next 5-10 years. The issues identified highlight three critical needs: adaptive governance systems, cross-sectoral collaboration capacity, and vigilance around new technologies that may simultaneously offer solutions and create new environmental pressures. We plotted these issues along axes of social agreement and scientific certainty, to ascertain whether issues might be "simple" (amenable to solutions from science alone), "complicated" (socially agreed upon but technically complicated), "complex" (scientifically challenging and condisderable levels of social disagreement) or "chaotic" (high social disagreement and highly scientifically challenging). Only one issue was likely to be addressed with improved science alone, but the remainder were all "complex", requiring social, economic and political engagement.

Indexed as

BiodiversityConservation of Natural ResourcesSouth AfricaBiodiversity futuresEmerging issues and step change threats and opportunitiesExpert opinionSocial consensus vs. scientific knowledge

Identifiers

PMID41824010
PMCPMC13554022

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.