ArticleFrontiers in medicine2026
The temporal trends of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years of inflammatory bowel disease in the Chinese population aged 0-54 years and prediction to 2030.
Article in Frontiers in medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 highlights that the age-standardized incidence rate of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in China reaches its peak prior to the age of 55 years, comprehensive analyses of the temporal trends in IBD burden among populations aged 0-54 years remain limited. To address this gap, we quantified the epidemiological trends of IBD in this age stratum from 1992 to 2021 and projected future trends through 2030. Methods: Age-standardized incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASMR) and disability adjusted life years (ASDR) rates for all ages attributable to IBD, together with the corresponding absolute numbers, were extracted from the GBD 2021database for the period 1992-2021. All metrics were stratified by gender and 5-year age groups. The ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, ASDR were re-estimated using the World Health Organization's standard population. Temporal trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression to calculate average annual percentage changes (AAPCs), and an age-period-cohort model was utilized to elucidate the distinct influences of age, period and birth cohort on IBD burden. Finally, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were constructed to forecast ASIR, ASPR, ASMR and ASDR rates for the population aged 0-54 years through 2030. Results: From 1992 to 2021, IBD affected 227,772 new cases, with 1,530,231 prevalent cases and 17,291 deaths, resulting in a total of 1,264,376 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) among populations aged 0-54 years. The ASIR exhibited a gradual increase in both males (AAPC = 2.23, 95%CI: 2.09-2.34%, Conclusion: The burden of IBD in China is substantial and continues to intensify among populations aged 0-54 years. To mitigate this growing medical burden, it is imperative to establish a comprehensive three-tiered prevention strategy, promote effective health education, implement early screening programs, ensure timely diagnosis and treatment, and improve the quality of life of individuals living with IBD.
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