Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41819144›Full record

ArticleClinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America2026

Patterns of HIV-1 Viral Load Suppression and Drug Resistance During the Dolutegravir Transition: A Population-based Longitudinal Study.

Michael A Martin, Alexandra Blenkinsop, Michelle Moffa, Steven James Reynolds, Fred Nalugoda, Thomas C Quinn, Godfrey Kigozi, Robert Ssekubugu, Ravindra K Gupta, Nicholas E Grayson and 13 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

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0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

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2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

23 authors.

Michael A MartinDepartment of Pathology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9689-4066
Alexandra BlenkinsopDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-2328-8671
Michelle MoffaJohns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2830-946X
Steven James ReynoldsRakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda.ORCID 0000-0002-5403-2759
Fred NalugodaRakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda.ORCID 0000-0001-6119-9293
Thomas C QuinnRakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda.ORCID 0000-0002-0404-1315
Godfrey KigoziRakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda.
Robert SsekubuguRakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda.
Ravindra K GuptaDepartment of Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0001-9751-1808
Nicholas E GraysonCentre for Human Genetics, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-9998-6783
George MacIntyre-CockettCentre for Human Genetics, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
Joseph KagaayiMakerere University School of Public Health, Kampala, Uganda.ORCID 0000-0003-4101-3038
Gertrude NakigoziRakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda.ORCID 0000-0001-6193-2790
Lucie Abeler-DörnerPandemic Sciences Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-3662-4192
Christophe FraserPandemic Sciences Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-2399-9657
Oliver RatmannDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0001-8667-4118
Aaron A R TobianDepartment of Pathology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-0517-3766
Oliver LaeyendeckerDivision of Infectious Disease, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6429-4760
Sikhulile MoyoBotswana Harvard Health Partnership, Gaborone, Botswana.ORCID 0000-0003-3821-4592
Caitlin E KennedyDepartment of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6820-063X
David BonsallCentre for Human Genetics, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-2187-0550
Ronald Moses GaliwangoRakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda.ORCID 0000-0003-3702-5722
M Kate GrabowskiDepartment of Pathology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4451-3436

Funding

Epidemiology and Impact of the HIV, NCD, and Urbanization Syndemic in AfricaR01HL152813 · NHLBI · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI CHANG, LARRY WILLIAM · 2021 to 2025
$7.8M
Long-term impact of universal treatment and dolutegravir on population HIV virologic and incidence outcomes in Africa: The LONGVIEW StudyR01AI155080 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI GRABOWSKI, MARY KATHRYN · 2021 to 2024
$2.5M
Multidisciplinary Research Training to Understand and Reduce HIV Incidence in UgandaD43TW010557 · FIC · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI CHANG, LARRY WILLIAM · 2018 to 2022
$1.6M
Male Circumcision and Use of Foreskin Tissues for HIV Prevention in UgandaD43TW009578 · FIC · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI GRAY, RONALD H · 2013 to 2017
$1.3M
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation INV-060259Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation INV-075093Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1084362CDC HHS NU2GGH000817FIC NIH HHS D43TW009578FIC NIH HHS D43TW010557Gates Foundation INV-007573Gates Foundation INV-035619Johns Hopkins University Center for AIDS Research P30AI094189National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases K01AI125086National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases K25AI114461National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases R01AI087409National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases R01AI110324National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases R01AI114438National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases R01AI123002National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases R01AI128779National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases R01AI143333National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases R01AI155080National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases R21AI145682National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases U01AI075115National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases U01AI100031National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases ZIAAI001040National Institute of Child Health and Development R01HD050180National Institute of Child Health and Development R01HD070769National Institute of Child Health and Development R01HD091003NHLBI NIH HHS R01HL152813NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI155080United States GovernmentUnited States of America National Institutes of HealthU.S. Department of Health and Human Services
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundData on the population-scale impact of dolutegravir (DTG)-based HIV regimens in sub-Saharan Africa are extremely limited. We used data from a surveillance cohort in southern Uganda to assess viral suppression and antiretroviral (ART) resistance over 10-years alongside DTG scale-up.

methodsConsenting participants in the population-based Rakai Community Cohort Study between August 2011 and March 2023 aged 15-49 completed questionnaires and provided samples for HIV testing, viral load quantification, and viral deep-sequencing. We collected data on DTG utilization at HIV care clinics. We estimated the prevalence of HIV suppression and ART resistance using robust Poisson regression. Bayesian logistic regression quantified associations between resistance and individual-level suppression across surveys.

resultsAmong 8781 people with HIV (PWH), suppression increased from 57.1% (2014, 95% confidence interval [CI], 55.4%-58.8%) to 90.3% (2022, 95% CI, 89.2%-91.4%). By 2020 84.4% (95% CI, 83.7%-85.2%) and 64.6% (95% CI, 63.9%-65.3%) of men and women on ART were on DTG. Among treatment-experienced viremic PWH, any intermediate/high resistance decreased from 51.1% (95% CI, 40.7%-64.2%, 2014) to 27.9% (95% CI, 21.3%-36.5%, 2022). Two of 258 (0.8%) 2022 participants harbored intermediate/high-level DTG resistance (inQ148R, inE138K, and inG140A). inS153Y (2-fold INSTI resistance) was observed in 23/306 (7.5%) of viremic individuals, with evidence of transmission. By 2022, NNRTI/NRTI resistance was not associated with a reduction in individual-level suppression (risk ratios: 1.15, 95% HPD: 0.93-1.39; 1.14, 0.86-1.42).

conclusionsViral suppression increased during the DTG transition with minimal emerging intermediate/high-level resistance. Falling resistance among treatment-experienced PWH underscores the role of ART adherence in reducing viremia. The emergence of inS153Y justifies continued surveillance.

Indexed as

Anti-HIV AgentsDrug Resistance, ViralHeterocyclic Compounds, 3-RingHIV-1HIV InfectionsHIV Integrase InhibitorsOxazinesPiperazinesPyridonesViral LoadAdolescentAdultDolutegravirFemaleHumansLongitudinal StudiesAnti-HIV AgentsDolutegravirHeterocyclic Compounds, 3-RingHIV Integrase InhibitorsOxazinesPiperazinesPyridonesdrug resistanceHIVpopulation-basedUgandaviral suppression

Identifiers

PMID41819144
PMCPMC13341247

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.