ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2026
The age paradox in post-infectious sequelae: physiological reserve outweighs chronological age in Long COVID susceptibility.
Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: Older age is widely considered a risk factor for post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC), typically attributed to immunosenescence and inflammaging. However, whether this association reflects intrinsic biological ageing or accumulated comorbidity burden remains unclear, with implications for clinical risk stratification. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the Precision PASC Research Cohort (P2RC) from Mass General Brigham, comprising 133,792 COVID-19 patients from 12 hospitals and 20 community health centres in Massachusetts (March 2020-May 2024). PASC was ascertained using a validated computational phenotyping algorithm. We used generalised estimating equations with cluster-robust variance to model PASC risk, causal mediation analysis to decompose age effects through comorbidity burden and acute severity, and specification curve analysis across 768 analytical specifications to assess robustness. Findings: After adjustment for comorbidity burden, each decade of age was associated with 6% lower odds of PASC (OR 0.94; 95% CI 0.93-0.95). Causal mediation analysis revealed that comorbidities accounted for 145% of the total age effect, indicating inconsistent mediation wherein age's direct protective effect was masked by its indirect harm through chronic disease accumulation. This protection was age-dependent: adults younger than 65 years retained robust resilience independent of comorbidities (ADE: -0.0042, p<0.001), whereas adults 65 years and older showed complete loss of this protection (ADE: +0.0020, p=0.14). Interpretation: Long COVID susceptibility is driven by physiological reserve rather than chronological age until approximately age 65, beyond which age-related protective mechanisms become exhausted. Risk stratification should prioritise comorbidity burden over birth year in younger adults. Funding: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID).
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