ArticleERJ open research2026
Personalised screening intensity based on existing lung cancer risk and spirometry.
Article in ERJ open research, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Authors and funding
11 authors.
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Abstract
Background: Existing targeted lung cancer screening programmes are either annual or biennial. We tested the hypothesis that existing risk models can inform personalised screening intervals to improve cost-effectiveness and reduce interval cancers. Spirometric airflow obstruction is a biomarker of lung cancer risk available in some cohorts, so we also explored whether this could add predictive value for stratification. Methods: We tested the performance of risk models to predict next-round risk among baseline-negative participants in annual screening in Manchester and National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) cohorts. Models were adapted in the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group and American College of Radiology Imaging Network (ECOG-ACRIN) sub-study of the NLST to investigate whether incorporating the spirometric percentage of predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV Results: In Manchester, where a Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial model 2012 (PLCO Discussion: Baseline risk could be used to extend intervals for substantial numbers of lower-risk participants, thereby reducing cost and screening harms, while focusing resources on those at highest risk to avoid delayed detection. Adding FEV
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