ArticleWorld journal of hepatology2026
Predictive tool for evident histological liver injury in chronic hepatitis B patients: Development and validation.
Article in World journal of hepatology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundChronic hepatitis B (CHB) is a leading cause of liver-related mortality, progressing to fibrosis, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma. Existing noninvasive tools (
aimTo develop and validate a predictive model for EHLI in CHB patients using a cohort from Hunan Province, China, to facilitate early risk identification and optimize resource allocation.
methodsThis observational real-world study enrolled 223 CHB patients (August 2020 to March 2022) from the Second Xiangya Hospital, divided into development (
resultsL59, platelet count (PLT), alanine transaminase (ALT), and aspartate transaminase (AST) were identified as independent predictors of EHLI. The model showed high discriminative ability, with AUC of 0.921 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.880-0.963] in the development cohort and 0.959 (95%CI: 0.910-1.0) in the validation cohort, demonstrating a 20%-32% relative improvement in AUC over conventional noninvasive scores. Calibration plots demonstrated good agreement between predicted and observed EHLI, and DCA confirmed clinical utility (threshold probabilities: 20%-80%). Transcriptomic analysis identified 210 differentially expressed genes, with hub genes (
conclusionA novel nomogram incorporating L59, PLT, ALT, and AST robustly predicts EHLI in CHB patients. This model, using routinely measured variables, aids clinical decision-making and optimizes resource allocation.
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