ArticleBMJ open2026
Effect of COVID-19 pandemic on ART access and timely initiation in people living with HIV in 31 countries: a regression discontinuity design study.
Article in BMJ open, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
32 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesThe COVID-19 pandemic threatened global HIV Test and Treat Efforts. We assessed whether it affected (1) the number of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiations and (2) the proportion of timely ART initiations in people living with HIV (PLWH) globally.
designQuasi-experimental, regression discontinuity design using routinely collected data from HIV clinics.
setting360 HIV care clinics across primary and secondary levels of care, participating in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS consortium, in 31 countries in Asia, Africa and the Americas.
participants177 391 PLWH (≥18 years old) who initiated ART 2 years before and 1 year after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in their country. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the number of ART initiations per week; the secondary outcome was the proportion of timely ART initiations (ie, ART initiated within 7 days of enrolment). We assessed changes in these outcomes in the 52 weeks after compared to the 104 weeks before the pandemic onset, defined using each country's peak Oxford Stringency Index score between January and June 2020.
resultsAmong 177 391 newly enrolled PLWH, 129 743 initiated during the pre-pandemic and 47 648 post-pandemic onset. 72.5% of ART initiations were timely pre-pandemic whereas 82.3% were during the pandemic. Absolute number of ART initiations remained stable during the pandemic period in 25 of 31 countries but decreased significantly in six countries: India (-5.0 p, 95% CI -9.2 to -0.7), Rwanda (-10.0 p, -18.6 to -1.4), Malawi (-33.4 p, -54.1 to -12.3), South Africa (-130.8 p, -188.6 to -73.1), Zimbabwe (-12.9 p, -20.0 to -5.8) and Togo (-19.6 p, -39.1 to -0.1). The proportion of timely initiations was stable in all countries except in Kenya (+4.2 pp, 95% CI +0.3 to +8.1) and in Mozambique (+2.7 pp, +0.5 to +4.9), where it increased significantly.
conclusionsA deeper understanding of the factors that contributed to sustaining ART initiations, particularly in settings with stringent public health and social measures, is needed. These insights should inform preparedness strategies, resource allocation and policy development to ensure continuity of HIV services during future health emergencies, in line with World Health Organisation recommendations.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.