ArticlePediatric surgery international2026
Risk factors for early recurrence after hydrostatic reduction of intussusception in children and development of a nomogram prediction model.
Article in Pediatric surgery international, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
objectiveTo identify predictors of early recurrence after hydrostatic reduction of pediatric intussusception and develop a nomogram.
methodsA total of 412 children with intussusception treated between January 2022 and January 2025 were enrolled. Based on recurrence within 48 h after successful hydrostatic reduction, they were assigned to a recurrent group (n = 37) or a non-recurrent group (n = 375). Clinical and ultrasonographic variables were compared between the groups, and a nomogram was developed and validated from the identified predictors.
resultsFollowing hydrostatic reduction, some independent predictors of recurrent intussusception in children were identified: symptom-onset time, maximal “target-sign” diameter on ultrasound, concentric-ring anatomic location, bowel-wall thickness, presence of intraluminal lesions, and peritoneal effusion (P < 0.05). A nomogram that integrates these ultrasound indices with clinical variables exhibited excellent calibration and discrimination. Decision-curve analysis further confirmed that the model delivered greater net clinical benefit than either “treat-all” or “treat-none” strategies across the entire range of threshold probabilities.
conclusionIn this study, we developed a nomogram based on clinical risk factors to predict short-term recurrence of intussusception after ultrasound-guided hydrostatic reduction in children. Age, duration of abdominal pain, maximal diameter of the “target sign” on ultrasound, concentric-ring anatomic location, bowel-wall thickness, intraluminal lesions, and peritoneal effusion were identified as predictors and incorporated into the model. Internal validation demonstrated that this nomogram provides a clear and convenient tool for stratifying recurrence risk in children undergoing ultrasound-guided hydrostatic reduction.
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