Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41800750›Full record

ArticleBiomolecules & biomedicine2026

30-day mortality prediction in acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding: Incremental value of the prognostic nutritional index with ABC and Rockall scores.

Murat Das, Ozge Kurtkulagi, Ece Unal Cetin, Hakan Kayan, Senem Guler, Ferhan Demirer Aydemir, Feyza Mutlay, Adil Ugur Çetİn, Yavuz Beyazit

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Biomolecules & biomedicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Murat DasDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Çanakkale, Türkiye.
Ozge KurtkulagiDepartment of Internal Medicine, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Çanakkale, Türkiye.
Ece Unal CetinDepartment of Internal Medicine, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Çanakkale, Türkiye.
Hakan KayanDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Çanakkale, Türkiye.
Senem GulerDepartment of Internal Medicine, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Çanakkale, Türkiye.
Ferhan Demirer AydemirDepartment of Intensive Care, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Çanakkale, Türkiye.
Feyza MutlayDepartment of Geriatrics, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Çanakkale, Türkiye.
Adil Ugur ÇetİnDepartment of Internal Medicine, Çanakkale Mehmet Akif Ersoy State Hospital, Çanakkale, Türkiye.
Yavuz BeyazitDepartment of Internal Medicine, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Çanakkale, Türkiye.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Mortality risk among patients admitted to the emergency department (ED) with acute upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding is heterogeneous, underscoring the importance of early identification of high-risk individuals. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic performance of the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) in predicting 30-day mortality and to determine whether incorporating PNI into established risk markers enhances prognostic accuracy. In this retrospective cohort study, we analyzed data from 619 patients with acute upper GI bleeding who presented to a tertiary university hospital between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2024. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were extracted from medical records. PNI was calculated using serum albumin and lymphocyte count at the time of admission, with the primary outcome being 30-day mortality. Predictors of mortality were examined using univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses. The incremental prognostic value of PNI was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and the DeLong test. The median age of participants was 74.0 years (interquartile range: 63.0-81.0), and 38% of the patients were female. The observed 30-day mortality rate was 7.9%. Non-survivors displayed significantly lower PNI levels compared to survivors (37.6 vs. 43.6; p < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, PNI (odds ratio [OR]: 0.847 [0.765-0.938]), lactate level (OR: 1.225 [1.047-1.434]), and the ABC score (OR: 1.201 [1.053-1.370]) were identified as independent predictors of mortality. The risk of mortality increased substantially when low PNI was combined with a high ABC score or elevated lactate level. Incorporating PNI into a baseline model resulted in a modest increase in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) from 0.708 to 0.774 (p = 0.049). In conclusion, PNI serves as an independent predictor of 30-day mortality in patients with acute upper GI bleeding. Its integration with existing risk scores may enhance prognostic discrimination and facilitate early risk stratification in the ED.

Indexed as

Gastrointestinal HemorrhageNutrition AssessmentAcute DiseaseAgedAged, 80 and overFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisRetrospective StudiesRisk FactorsROC Curve

Identifiers

PMID41800750
PMCPMC13170715

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